Has the Labour Party just provided Mrs May with a key lifeline?

First of all I want to address the breakthrough piece of news this week that stated that Corbyn and the Labour Party would be willing to accept a deal that Theresa May negotiates with the EU if  the UK remains part of some customs union. Now whilst key Labour cabinet members attempted to trivialise the significance of this statement, for example Barry Gardiner on the ever wonderful Peston show, said the deal had been on the table for the last 18 months, the significance of this remark is undoubtedly clear - it is a lifeline for May.

One of the clear issues for Theresa May has been getting the deal negotiated with the EU to pass through the Commons. With around 60 hardline Tory MPs prepared to #ChuckChequers it remains to be seen whether the Tory Party will comjure the required votes from Labour and the Lib Dems to secure the bill passing through the Commons. Let us do some very quick maths, a bill needs around 322 votes to pass through the Commons and lets say the Tory Party can whip 261 votes to support this bill, they still require around 60 votes for the deal to be passed into UK legislation, a vital part of the deal. Despite the Tory Party being able to rely on the DUP votes, unless the Irish Border remains unsolved, there still needs to be cross bench support of 50 MPs. Even the Labour Party's centralist side only contains around 20 anit-Corbynites so the real question we should be asking is: Is the deal that Theresa May negotiates going to accepted by Parliament. Whilst, disappointingly I am unable to answer that most interesting question, I do believe that it would be a struggle for May.

But here's where that so-called lifeline I mentioned comes into play. May has been targeted left, right and centre recently, with even John Major criticisng the behaviour of certain MPs for calling May to step down - and whilst I agree that Nadine Dorries and Boris Johnson are being incredibly unhelpful to the PM right now, there can be no detraction from the number of MPs that see May needing the boot. And while that is the case, May is scraping by daily just to survive and with the vast number of MPs ready to make a leadership move should May step down, her position as PM is contentious and therefore, so is her Brexit Bill. Labour have been very philanthropic in public lately, trying to demonstrate a calmness and assuredness towards Brexit and provide actual alternatives and they have genuinely succeeded at that. Their proposal, that they will support May's Brexit Bill should it contain a form of remaining in a Customs Union is very controversial for many reasons. Firstly, May has explicitly said repeatedly that Britian would leave the Customs Union period. However, from my understanding, Corbyn would be willing to agree to having tariff free access to the Single Market, a branch under the umbrella that is the Customs Union. Secondly, membership of a Single Market rather than a free trade agreement means regulatory alignment in certain sectors. Unsurprisingly, this has been strongly refuted by the ERG division of the Tory Party. But if May cannot count on their support no matter the deal she negotiates, surely the logical thing would be to ignore those MPs in particular and focus on getting the best deal that is the most likely to pass through the Commons.

So, I mentioned at the beginning of the blog that this could be a lifeline for Mrs May and her government, that the support of Labour could almost guarantee a smooth a prosperitive exit from the EU however, it contains one major 'but'. Mrs May would have to go back on her promise to leave the Customs Union - something that would almost certainly put the nail in her coffin but, in a selfless sense, could that be of value if she is going to get the boot anyway?

Anyways, sorry for the colloquialism in this particular blog post but I hope it was informative and insightful. If you liked this and want to read more like this, please comment and share! :)