The EU/Brexit Blog

Well this week has already been an eventful week. Theresa May has announced that MPs will not only be able to have a final vote on her Brexit deal on the 12th of March, but if her deal is rejected by MPs, MPs will then proceed to vote on how to proceed - with a no deal or extending Article 50. The vote again on Mrs May's deal is slightly irrelevant. It is a vote that we already know the answer to, it will suffer another landslide defeat. However, the vote is a placeholder so that MPs can proceed to vote on the next path that the UK follows, a no deal or extending the process of Article 50. We can hypothesise till the cows come home how these votes will end but what we can do is examine what will  happen if either motion is approved by the Commons. Parliament approves the UK leaving the EU without a deal: The vast majority of small businesses do not have the cash available to prepare for the various outcomes of Brexit. This means there are series of outcomes still possible t...

I apologise for my recent lack of posts but there have been many factors in my decision not to post anything on my blog over the last four weeks. Back when Theresa May's Brexit deal was rejected emphatically by Parliament back in mid January, I thought to myself, well at least Mrs May now has a mandate to either remove the backstop or end negotiations. In my mind it was clear, the backstop was an issue of ginormous magnitude for the Commons and one that EU leaders would fail to avoid. Unless the issue could be resolved, there would be no deal. So I waited. I waited for progress to be made to resolve the issue of the backstop. I waited for a compromise, a sensible and reasonable compromise which could see the issue become less volatile or even solved. However, as I waited, I fully noticed the incompetence of both Mrs May and Mr Corbyn who failed to even discuss or resolve the issue. In fact, both were more concerned about keeping their respective parties in tact - something the la...

First of all, I apologise for my brief sabbatical. There was a circle of repetitive Brexit-related news found across all mainstream mediums and having addressed them, I felt it unnecessary to further comment on issues and ideas. However, the elephant in the room is that Mrs May has lost her 'meaningful vote' by 230 votes, the largest government defeat in history and the message from the Commons to May could not be clearer. Parliament fundamentally rejects the deal presented and no matter the amendments proposed, the deal is flawed and will never be supported by the Commons. Now, this vote is not legally binding but it would be politically suicidal to pursue with such a deal as fellow parliamentarians would argue the executive is acting independent of Parliament and, no doubt, a successful vote of no confidence would follow. There was talk earlier on Tuesday that May would, if there was a minor loss of her deal, to allows the proposal of amendments and return to the EU and u...

Well hasn't this been a turbulent week in the UK. First, we had the vote on Mrs May's deal called off on Monday and then, on Tuesday evening, Sir Graham Brady announced the 48 letters of no confidence had been sent in by Tory MPs. The subsequent vote was then won by Mrs May although not emphatically. Mrs May then announced she would seek further clarification of the deal as a result of her calling of the meaningful vote. Now that is a brief summary of this week in politics and I could've easily surmised these events but I thought it was important to take a minute to let the dust settle and then comment on everything - which is what I intend to do now. First of all, when Mrs May called off the vote, I personally considered that the most politically insensitive move the PM could've executed. Despite there being three full days of debate in the Commons for the deal, the PM, at the last minute, pulled the vote due to the knowledge that she would lose. Quelle suprise. ...

(Written on Monday the 3rd of December 2018) This week, May continued her media campaign trying to sell her deal to the public. A strange decision considering that MPs will seal her fate. We have also seen Parliament try to take control of the executive over the last week. With specific amendments being put to the Withdrawal Agreement, what do they all mean and what are the consequences of such amendments being passed in Parliament. This week has seen another up and coming minister, Sam Gyimah, resign from Government citing the Withdrawal Agreement as being unacceptable. With demand growing in Parliament for a so-called 'People's Vote', the pressure is most certainly on the PM to give the MPs what they want - but Government policy says otherwise and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. In my eyes, there are only two ways we have a second referendum, first, is if we have a different Prime Minister because of Mrs May's strong opinions against it.  So, unle...

(Written on Friday the 23rd November 2018) I sit here today and I have been listening to all kinds of qualms and complaints from across the political spectrum directed at Mrs May's Withdrawal Agreement. This has left the state of the Brexit deal in tatters but what does this mean for Mrs May, the Government and Brexit overall? Mrs May: It's no secret that Mrs May isn't well supported by many fellow Tories but nonetheless, the BBC finds only 26 Tory MPs have sent letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady. I want to state my belief that despite the catastrophic negotiating tactics of the May and her administration, only 26 letters of no confidence have been sent in and I highly doubt that within the next five months, a further 22 letters will be sent in. So, first of all, I am highly sceptical that the required 48 letters of no confidence in the PM will be sent in. Furthermore, a majority of Tory MPs would need to vote that they have no confidence in the PM and wit...

(Written on Friday 16th November 2018) No doubt anyone has escaped the frenzy that is Brexit over the past few days. Theresa May has made the significant breakthrough of securing a deal with the EU and securing cabinet approval for the deal. In this post, I will address the Withdrawal Agreement and explore the various articles and clauses contained within the deal. I will then discuss the forward path from now onwards. The Withdrawal Agreement is a 585 page document that outlines outcomes from security co-operation to the contentious backstop agreement. Everyone will have their own opinions regarding each clause so I will endeavour to address each clause from an economic and practical standpoint. It astounds me that the document is so large but be so vague in language. We know the impact of uncertainty. The Pound is at its most volatile since June 2016 and this further uncertainty is further going to affect the UK economy as well as investment into the nation. The Backstop Arran...

Okay so this was poorly planned on my behalf, or rather, posting my initial Commons Arithmetic on Friday did not account for events that would take place on Saturday. So when I read Jeremy Corbyn's quote in Der Spiegel stating that he believed 'There's no stopping Brexit', I could only throw my hands into the air in despair because this quote has huge implications for Brexit. The Commons requires 322 votes as a general rule of thumb for a bill to pass and although all MPs might not be present in the Brexit vote which will most likely be in September, the required vote count will likely be somewhere near that total. To start off with, we have the 60 Tory MPs rebelling that are led by Rees-Mogg and we also have the People's Vote so called 'rebels' made up of Anna Soubry, Phillip Lee, Guto Bebb and a few more who also strongly refute the government's Brexit proposals. However, and more crucially, we see government support inside government diminishing,...

We hear relentlessly the pressures on all sides on May's Brexit deal for it to be able to pass into legislation. It has to not cross the EU, DUP, Commons and, for that matter, Ireland's red lines - in this context I refer red lines to being the points of a deal that make a deal inconceivable. The EU and Ireland are closely intertwined in their desires, Ireland desires to have no border across the North and South divide which requires frictionless trade for Northern Ireland - a customs union membership which we can now refer to as the backstop arrangement. In order to prevent this red line being breached, it remains impossible for a deal to be struck that doesn't ensure frictionless trade across the Irish border - i.e Customs Union membership. Then we proceed onto the DUP, they threaten to topple the government and provide concern for the future union of the United Kingdom if a border develops down the Irish Sea. This, in all fairness, is a largely expected and natural ...

First of all I want to address the breakthrough piece of news this week that stated that Corbyn and the Labour Party would be willing to accept a deal that Theresa May negotiates with the EU if   the UK remains part of some customs union. Now whilst key Labour cabinet members attempted to trivialise the significance of this statement, for example Barry Gardiner on the ever wonderful Peston show, said the deal had been on the table for the last 18 months, the significance of this remark is undoubtedly clear - it is a lifeline for May. One of the clear issues for Theresa May has been getting the deal negotiated with the EU to pass through the Commons. With around 60 hardline Tory MPs prepared to #ChuckChequers it remains to be seen whether the Tory Party will comjure the required votes from Labour and the Lib Dems to secure the bill passing through the Commons. Let us do some very quick maths, a bill needs around 322 votes to pass through the Commons and lets say the Tory P...

Okay, so I admit that today, this blog post is a bit more impromptu than normal and particularly fuelled with emotion despite my desire otherwise not to fill my blog posts with incessant opinions that stem from an emotional nature, but today signifies a one-off post of that nature. I read yesterday morning about Jeremy Corbyn coming out to say that if Labour members backed a second referendum at the Party Conference then he would be obliged to make it Party Policy - this particular news feed infuriated me especially - but I want to also discuss why this feeling has built up long-term as well. By now I'm sure most of my readership know of my standing on the political spectrum and, in particular, my position towards Brexit but I want you to ignore that fact as I will try to write without that ideology in mind. So whilst I recognise the seismic shift towards the left of the Labour Party, I want to criticise the position of the Labour Party, it's attitudes towards Brexit and ho...