The EU/Brexit Blog

Well this week has already been an eventful week. Theresa May has announced that MPs will not only be able to have a final vote on her Brexit deal on the 12th of March, but if her deal is rejected by MPs, MPs will then proceed to vote on how to proceed - with a no deal or extending Article 50. The vote again on Mrs May's deal is slightly irrelevant. It is a vote that we already know the answer to, it will suffer another landslide defeat. However, the vote is a placeholder so that MPs can proceed to vote on the next path that the UK follows, a no deal or extending the process of Article 50. We can hypothesise till the cows come home how these votes will end but what we can do is examine what will  happen if either motion is approved by the Commons. Parliament approves the UK leaving the EU without a deal: The vast majority of small businesses do not have the cash available to prepare for the various outcomes of Brexit. This means there are series of outcomes still possible t...

I apologise for my recent lack of posts but there have been many factors in my decision not to post anything on my blog over the last four weeks. Back when Theresa May's Brexit deal was rejected emphatically by Parliament back in mid January, I thought to myself, well at least Mrs May now has a mandate to either remove the backstop or end negotiations. In my mind it was clear, the backstop was an issue of ginormous magnitude for the Commons and one that EU leaders would fail to avoid. Unless the issue could be resolved, there would be no deal. So I waited. I waited for progress to be made to resolve the issue of the backstop. I waited for a compromise, a sensible and reasonable compromise which could see the issue become less volatile or even solved. However, as I waited, I fully noticed the incompetence of both Mrs May and Mr Corbyn who failed to even discuss or resolve the issue. In fact, both were more concerned about keeping their respective parties in tact - something the la...

Well hasn't this been a turbulent week in the UK. First, we had the vote on Mrs May's deal called off on Monday and then, on Tuesday evening, Sir Graham Brady announced the 48 letters of no confidence had been sent in by Tory MPs. The subsequent vote was then won by Mrs May although not emphatically. Mrs May then announced she would seek further clarification of the deal as a result of her calling of the meaningful vote. Now that is a brief summary of this week in politics and I could've easily surmised these events but I thought it was important to take a minute to let the dust settle and then comment on everything - which is what I intend to do now. First of all, when Mrs May called off the vote, I personally considered that the most politically insensitive move the PM could've executed. Despite there being three full days of debate in the Commons for the deal, the PM, at the last minute, pulled the vote due to the knowledge that she would lose. Quelle suprise. ...

(Written on Saturday 17th November 2018) When sitting at my desk earlier today, examining my blog, I remembered it was named the EU/Brexit Blog and rather ironically, the one thing I haven't referred to as much as I should have has been the EU. Our constitutional crisis no doubt usurps the qualms of the EU but it is important to consider the likelihood that the Draft Agreement may not pass through the Commons. As much as we want to promote national sovereignty and inflate our global position, the EU has just as much interest in this topic as the nation. What does happen if Parliament votes down the deal? Well, as I am sure my trusty readers know, I addressed these points fairly comprehensively in my previous post, but, could we see the EU supporting other options that may not be on the table today. I read this brilliant piece from the BBC's Katya Adler who addressed this precise issue. Clearly, no deal is completely out of the EU's best interests, hell, Michel Barnie...

(Written on Friday 16th November 2018) No doubt anyone has escaped the frenzy that is Brexit over the past few days. Theresa May has made the significant breakthrough of securing a deal with the EU and securing cabinet approval for the deal. In this post, I will address the Withdrawal Agreement and explore the various articles and clauses contained within the deal. I will then discuss the forward path from now onwards. The Withdrawal Agreement is a 585 page document that outlines outcomes from security co-operation to the contentious backstop agreement. Everyone will have their own opinions regarding each clause so I will endeavour to address each clause from an economic and practical standpoint. It astounds me that the document is so large but be so vague in language. We know the impact of uncertainty. The Pound is at its most volatile since June 2016 and this further uncertainty is further going to affect the UK economy as well as investment into the nation. The Backstop Arran...

(note this was written on Thursday 8th November 2018) For so long have the British people heard the term 'Backstop Arrangement' and not quite known what they mean, it is the elusive term that proves so difficult in British politics. But what are the arrangements and why are they important to the Brexit process? The UK Government have been stating that 'No Deal is better than a Bad Deal' since January 2017 and whilst many have practically disposed of the idea due to the practical and real issues that arise from a no deal, logically, it is a good negotiating tactic showing ones preparedness to walk away from negotiations. The EU has returned, taking this statement for face value, and started to make contingency plans should the UK and EU fail to reach a deal stating the future relationship with regards to movement of people and goods, there needs to be a backup arrangement protecting the fragile balance of Irish politics across the North South divide. Furthermore, it ...

We hear relentlessly the pressures on all sides on May's Brexit deal for it to be able to pass into legislation. It has to not cross the EU, DUP, Commons and, for that matter, Ireland's red lines - in this context I refer red lines to being the points of a deal that make a deal inconceivable. The EU and Ireland are closely intertwined in their desires, Ireland desires to have no border across the North and South divide which requires frictionless trade for Northern Ireland - a customs union membership which we can now refer to as the backstop arrangement. In order to prevent this red line being breached, it remains impossible for a deal to be struck that doesn't ensure frictionless trade across the Irish border - i.e Customs Union membership. Then we proceed onto the DUP, they threaten to topple the government and provide concern for the future union of the United Kingdom if a border develops down the Irish Sea. This, in all fairness, is a largely expected and natural ...

In a surprising turn of events, the Chancellor's Autumn Budget 2018 was fairly light in terms of mentioning Brexit. When the Chancellor mentioned Brexit, it was either to refer to a Brexit dividend, a sum of £4.4bn or an increase in spending on Brexit preparations. I think it's fair to say there was a lack of long term funding commitments to the public services, bar the increase in NHS spending, however, that was indeed due to Brexit. With a certain lack of awareness regarding the future relationship between the EU and UK and the effect that that would have on trade and economy, it is typical of Spreadsheet Phil to be pragmatic about saving up money in the event of a no deal. There were lots of small contributions to each public sector, a strong commitment to fixing potholes and privind money for the little extras for school was an attempt to sway funding concerns whilst also not committing to long term funding in the event that a no deal Brexit means that funding needs to...

I apologise in advance for this post, it is a lot more reactionary to current affairs than most of my blog posts and whilst my blog posts are kind of dependent on current affairs, this is based upon the events of the past few days. For too long now, I have almost expected the UK Government and EU to reach a deal. Jean-Claude Juncker's mandate has been to reach a deal and it appeared almost inconceivable that Juncker could unsuccessfully achieve his mandate and still hold his position within the negotiating team. Similarly, a world in which the UK crashes out the EU seemed beyond belief; our financial sector, aviation, and food market would collapse almost instantaneously and leave Britain at a standstill, a first for such a developed nation - and one I didn't want to imagine. Furthermore, the positive language, until now, used by Tusk and May acted as encouragement that a deal could be done by November. The undertone set by May was that she expected, come November, the ...

Last night, I was lying in bed thinking about Brexit, as you do, and I was thinking about the what the current EU leaders and all the parliamentarian leaders across the EU would be thinking about right now - particularly about Brexit. Now I am sure we've all heard the classic 'no one in the EU  really  cares as much about Brexit as us British do' but it seems to be becoming a more prominent issue across the EU. So I thought I would structure this blog post based on what do the other leaders of across the EU think about the Brexit negotiations and then the future for the EU as a result of these negotiations. Firstly, I thought it'd be important to say that I don't think anyone anticipated what a huge deal Brexit was until the negotiations started - now I know I'm stating the bleeding obvious but it's a key principal to note. Through the period up to summer 2017, I would regularly hear on the radio that EU leaders were unconcerned by Brexit and that it ...

First of all, I want to make clear that these points that I make below are not criticisms of the PM but rather me stating the facts and whether her Chequers Plan will survive as a result. In the first instance, the famous Chequers Plan sets out a common rulebook for some goods and services subject to agreement with the EU, a joint jurisdiction area whereby UK courts could uphold EU/UK regulations whilst still being aware of precedent and expectations of the EU - i.e removing ECJ jurisdiction and bring back 'control' back onto the mainland. Finally, the Chequers Plan sets out a maximum facilitation agreement whereby the UK would collect tariffs on products headed to the EU and pay those tariffs directly to the EU whilst still applying its own tariffs post-Brexit. As of the 21st of September 2018, the Prime Minister has come under immense scrutiny from members of her own cabinet and party, First Ministers across the UK and in particular, the EU - Juncker, Barnier and Tu...