The EU/Brexit Blog

Well this week has already been an eventful week. Theresa May has announced that MPs will not only be able to have a final vote on her Brexit deal on the 12th of March, but if her deal is rejected by MPs, MPs will then proceed to vote on how to proceed - with a no deal or extending Article 50. The vote again on Mrs May's deal is slightly irrelevant. It is a vote that we already know the answer to, it will suffer another landslide defeat. However, the vote is a placeholder so that MPs can proceed to vote on the next path that the UK follows, a no deal or extending the process of Article 50. We can hypothesise till the cows come home how these votes will end but what we can do is examine what will  happen if either motion is approved by the Commons. Parliament approves the UK leaving the EU without a deal: The vast majority of small businesses do not have the cash available to prepare for the various outcomes of Brexit. This means there are series of outcomes still possible t...

First of all, I apologise for my brief sabbatical. There was a circle of repetitive Brexit-related news found across all mainstream mediums and having addressed them, I felt it unnecessary to further comment on issues and ideas. However, the elephant in the room is that Mrs May has lost her 'meaningful vote' by 230 votes, the largest government defeat in history and the message from the Commons to May could not be clearer. Parliament fundamentally rejects the deal presented and no matter the amendments proposed, the deal is flawed and will never be supported by the Commons. Now, this vote is not legally binding but it would be politically suicidal to pursue with such a deal as fellow parliamentarians would argue the executive is acting independent of Parliament and, no doubt, a successful vote of no confidence would follow. There was talk earlier on Tuesday that May would, if there was a minor loss of her deal, to allows the proposal of amendments and return to the EU and u...

Well hasn't this been a turbulent week in the UK. First, we had the vote on Mrs May's deal called off on Monday and then, on Tuesday evening, Sir Graham Brady announced the 48 letters of no confidence had been sent in by Tory MPs. The subsequent vote was then won by Mrs May although not emphatically. Mrs May then announced she would seek further clarification of the deal as a result of her calling of the meaningful vote. Now that is a brief summary of this week in politics and I could've easily surmised these events but I thought it was important to take a minute to let the dust settle and then comment on everything - which is what I intend to do now. First of all, when Mrs May called off the vote, I personally considered that the most politically insensitive move the PM could've executed. Despite there being three full days of debate in the Commons for the deal, the PM, at the last minute, pulled the vote due to the knowledge that she would lose. Quelle suprise. ...

(Written on Sunday the 9th of December) What a mysterious topic this is. Back in early 2017, the big news was whether the UK could unilaterally revoke Article 50. This was emphatically refuted by both the EU and UK parliament as being both unconstitutional as well as unfeasible. Low and behold, we find ourselves about to enter 2019 with this exact discussion arising yet again. However, one of those limiting factors is being questioned as to whether it is legitimate or not. This would be the feasibility. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, and as much as I dislike the cliche, the phrase 'democratic will of the people' pretty much makes the ability of government to revoke A50 despite having the referendum of 2016 infinitesimal. However, there is a real boredom arising from the general public who are fed up of talking about Brexit and just want to focus on judicial reform, housing reform and, of course, transport reform. These are the issues the public care about and I woul...

(Written on Monday the 3rd of December 2018) This week, May continued her media campaign trying to sell her deal to the public. A strange decision considering that MPs will seal her fate. We have also seen Parliament try to take control of the executive over the last week. With specific amendments being put to the Withdrawal Agreement, what do they all mean and what are the consequences of such amendments being passed in Parliament. This week has seen another up and coming minister, Sam Gyimah, resign from Government citing the Withdrawal Agreement as being unacceptable. With demand growing in Parliament for a so-called 'People's Vote', the pressure is most certainly on the PM to give the MPs what they want - but Government policy says otherwise and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. In my eyes, there are only two ways we have a second referendum, first, is if we have a different Prime Minister because of Mrs May's strong opinions against it.  So, unle...

(Written on Friday the 23rd November 2018) I sit here today and I have been listening to all kinds of qualms and complaints from across the political spectrum directed at Mrs May's Withdrawal Agreement. This has left the state of the Brexit deal in tatters but what does this mean for Mrs May, the Government and Brexit overall? Mrs May: It's no secret that Mrs May isn't well supported by many fellow Tories but nonetheless, the BBC finds only 26 Tory MPs have sent letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady. I want to state my belief that despite the catastrophic negotiating tactics of the May and her administration, only 26 letters of no confidence have been sent in and I highly doubt that within the next five months, a further 22 letters will be sent in. So, first of all, I am highly sceptical that the required 48 letters of no confidence in the PM will be sent in. Furthermore, a majority of Tory MPs would need to vote that they have no confidence in the PM and wit...

(Written on Friday 16th November 2018) No doubt anyone has escaped the frenzy that is Brexit over the past few days. Theresa May has made the significant breakthrough of securing a deal with the EU and securing cabinet approval for the deal. In this post, I will address the Withdrawal Agreement and explore the various articles and clauses contained within the deal. I will then discuss the forward path from now onwards. The Withdrawal Agreement is a 585 page document that outlines outcomes from security co-operation to the contentious backstop agreement. Everyone will have their own opinions regarding each clause so I will endeavour to address each clause from an economic and practical standpoint. It astounds me that the document is so large but be so vague in language. We know the impact of uncertainty. The Pound is at its most volatile since June 2016 and this further uncertainty is further going to affect the UK economy as well as investment into the nation. The Backstop Arran...

Okay so this was poorly planned on my behalf, or rather, posting my initial Commons Arithmetic on Friday did not account for events that would take place on Saturday. So when I read Jeremy Corbyn's quote in Der Spiegel stating that he believed 'There's no stopping Brexit', I could only throw my hands into the air in despair because this quote has huge implications for Brexit. The Commons requires 322 votes as a general rule of thumb for a bill to pass and although all MPs might not be present in the Brexit vote which will most likely be in September, the required vote count will likely be somewhere near that total. To start off with, we have the 60 Tory MPs rebelling that are led by Rees-Mogg and we also have the People's Vote so called 'rebels' made up of Anna Soubry, Phillip Lee, Guto Bebb and a few more who also strongly refute the government's Brexit proposals. However, and more crucially, we see government support inside government diminishing,...

BREAKING NEWS - Arron Banks, a prominent Leave.EU campaigner has been referred to the National Crime Agency for breaking electoral law. This is not the first time that the pro-Brexit campaign has come into question over the last year and it's causing just as much outrage as the first instance but let's be clear, the Electoral Commission referring Banks to the NCA is not as significant as it may seem. When the Electoral Commission first referred the Vote Leave campaign to police for breaking electoral spending laws back in July, there was the general expectation that Vote Leave would be criminally charged and that would be that - however, nearly four months on from that point, there has yet to be any formal charges against the group. We, as the public, cannot expect Vote Leave to be found guilty if the facts take this long to certify that Vote Leave are guilty of breaking electoral law. Now the point of that story is so that we don't get ahead of ourselves and...

I apologise in advance for this post, it is a lot more reactionary to current affairs than most of my blog posts and whilst my blog posts are kind of dependent on current affairs, this is based upon the events of the past few days. For too long now, I have almost expected the UK Government and EU to reach a deal. Jean-Claude Juncker's mandate has been to reach a deal and it appeared almost inconceivable that Juncker could unsuccessfully achieve his mandate and still hold his position within the negotiating team. Similarly, a world in which the UK crashes out the EU seemed beyond belief; our financial sector, aviation, and food market would collapse almost instantaneously and leave Britain at a standstill, a first for such a developed nation - and one I didn't want to imagine. Furthermore, the positive language, until now, used by Tusk and May acted as encouragement that a deal could be done by November. The undertone set by May was that she expected, come November, the ...

I want to start off by saying that at the beginning of the year, I was incredibly receptive to the idea of a People’s Vote due to my pure desperation to stop Brexit. Whilst at the time I believed it to be a legitimate scenario in which the (No) Deal would be fully presented and laid out to the public, I fail to see the Government legitimately considering that notion and see the potential ramifications and precedent set for the future as inconceivable. Firstly, I genuinely fail to believe that Government will be prepared to present the full negotiation and deal with the Public. The nation has been divided based upon their desire to Remain or Leave and I believe that a People’s Vote will only enhance and intensify the clash between the two ideologies in the future. When I open my Twitter newsfeed, I am bombarded with #FBPE retweets arguing, with much evidence, as to why leaving the EU would negatively impact the nation and I can only see the rivalry between the two divisions incre...