The EU/Brexit Blog

(note this was written on Thursday 8th November 2018) For so long have the British people heard the term 'Backstop Arrangement' and not quite known what they mean, it is the elusive term that proves so difficult in British politics. But what are the arrangements and why are they important to the Brexit process? The UK Government have been stating that 'No Deal is better than a Bad Deal' since January 2017 and whilst many have practically disposed of the idea due to the practical and real issues that arise from a no deal, logically, it is a good negotiating tactic showing ones preparedness to walk away from negotiations. The EU has returned, taking this statement for face value, and started to make contingency plans should the UK and EU fail to reach a deal stating the future relationship with regards to movement of people and goods, there needs to be a backup arrangement protecting the fragile balance of Irish politics across the North South divide. Furthermore, it ...

Okay so this was poorly planned on my behalf, or rather, posting my initial Commons Arithmetic on Friday did not account for events that would take place on Saturday. So when I read Jeremy Corbyn's quote in Der Spiegel stating that he believed 'There's no stopping Brexit', I could only throw my hands into the air in despair because this quote has huge implications for Brexit. The Commons requires 322 votes as a general rule of thumb for a bill to pass and although all MPs might not be present in the Brexit vote which will most likely be in September, the required vote count will likely be somewhere near that total. To start off with, we have the 60 Tory MPs rebelling that are led by Rees-Mogg and we also have the People's Vote so called 'rebels' made up of Anna Soubry, Phillip Lee, Guto Bebb and a few more who also strongly refute the government's Brexit proposals. However, and more crucially, we see government support inside government diminishing,...

We hear relentlessly the pressures on all sides on May's Brexit deal for it to be able to pass into legislation. It has to not cross the EU, DUP, Commons and, for that matter, Ireland's red lines - in this context I refer red lines to being the points of a deal that make a deal inconceivable. The EU and Ireland are closely intertwined in their desires, Ireland desires to have no border across the North and South divide which requires frictionless trade for Northern Ireland - a customs union membership which we can now refer to as the backstop arrangement. In order to prevent this red line being breached, it remains impossible for a deal to be struck that doesn't ensure frictionless trade across the Irish border - i.e Customs Union membership. Then we proceed onto the DUP, they threaten to topple the government and provide concern for the future union of the United Kingdom if a border develops down the Irish Sea. This, in all fairness, is a largely expected and natural ...

First of all I want to address the breakthrough piece of news this week that stated that Corbyn and the Labour Party would be willing to accept a deal that Theresa May negotiates with the EU if   the UK remains part of some customs union. Now whilst key Labour cabinet members attempted to trivialise the significance of this statement, for example Barry Gardiner on the ever wonderful Peston show, said the deal had been on the table for the last 18 months, the significance of this remark is undoubtedly clear - it is a lifeline for May. One of the clear issues for Theresa May has been getting the deal negotiated with the EU to pass through the Commons. With around 60 hardline Tory MPs prepared to #ChuckChequers it remains to be seen whether the Tory Party will comjure the required votes from Labour and the Lib Dems to secure the bill passing through the Commons. Let us do some very quick maths, a bill needs around 322 votes to pass through the Commons and lets say the Tory P...

First of all, I want to make clear that these points that I make below are not criticisms of the PM but rather me stating the facts and whether her Chequers Plan will survive as a result. In the first instance, the famous Chequers Plan sets out a common rulebook for some goods and services subject to agreement with the EU, a joint jurisdiction area whereby UK courts could uphold EU/UK regulations whilst still being aware of precedent and expectations of the EU - i.e removing ECJ jurisdiction and bring back 'control' back onto the mainland. Finally, the Chequers Plan sets out a maximum facilitation agreement whereby the UK would collect tariffs on products headed to the EU and pay those tariffs directly to the EU whilst still applying its own tariffs post-Brexit. As of the 21st of September 2018, the Prime Minister has come under immense scrutiny from members of her own cabinet and party, First Ministers across the UK and in particular, the EU - Juncker, Barnier and Tu...