What makes Theresa May’s negotiating position so difficult yet so unique?

I think for pretty much everyone here it’s clear that Theresa May is a significantly weakened individual and has been for the past year – especially since she called the GE2017 in which she lost her majority in the Commons. It’s not just that though, personally, I feel somewhat sorry for her as she has been left to rot by pretty much her entire party and Mrs May has lost significant support in what was a distinctly presidential General Election last year that has undoubtedly made her job at negotiating Brexit unquestionably more difficult.

Let’s start with the General Election last year. May was advised to be largely indistinct during the election campaign, both because of her shyness and her huge and unprecedented popularity amongst the electorate, in order to retain the voters they had and increase the Conservative’s negotiating power in Brexit with the intention of a greater majority in the Commons. However, May and her advisers pretty much underwent the greatest and most radical change to the Conservative Manifesto seen in 40 years with many changes in policy alienating their very own voters – such as the Dementia Tax which was widely criticised by the media. A failure to attend debates and a shakiness around May led to her popularity rapidly decreasing and the presidential election, per se, left May with a minority government that so diminished her negotiating power both in Brussels and in Westminster.

And then the divisions within the Conservative Party started to appear, the *blossoming* of the European Research Group with 62 signatories and the so-called Tory Rebels who are pro-EU. With pressure from either side, the PM decided to split the Cabinet so that May could effectively have the controlling vote on Government policy. As straightforward and masterful an idea it was, May undeniably failed to comprehend the flaws within her Cabinet which saw three Secretaries of State resign within 7 weeks of each other, due to sexual harassment, contempt and misleading Parliament. This left May scrambling to find replacements that had similar views towards Brexit as their predecessor, no matter how out of place they were for the job. May has seen two of her most trusted colleagues, Amber Rudd and Damian Green, resign from Cabinet as well and her job in Cabinet seems as though she is just fire-fighting every single situation that arises from the mess created by her fellow ministers. This disruption, no doubt enhanced with the resignations of David Davis and Boris Johnson, has created an unduly amount of stress for the PM who hasn’t been allowed to fully get on with the British Government’s negotiating position in Brexit. The unprecedented scale of ministerial resignations taking place makes May’s job in Westminster all the more difficult whilst distracting her from the ordeal that has become Brexit.

Now, I believe we have already established that May appears to be out of control of her party and Cabinet, but the extent of the betrayal she faces from her own party is beyond astonishing. When May returned from her Chequers visit with the Cabinet, there was this belief that the UK’s negotiating position with the EU would have finally been determined and when May returned there was an air of ‘Peace for our Time’ about her sentiments. However, that was far from the case, despite the fact that every minister had agreed to the Chequers Plan, David Davis resigned from DExEU just days after the agreement. Not only had May been humiliated by this statement, much faster than Neville Chamberlain might I add, she was forced to backtrack on her Chequers Plan and adjust it based upon the ERG’s policies. I personally have never seen a time in politics whereby Parliament is voting to reinstate Government policy from just a few days prior – it was an extraordinary sight to see.

So, we all know Parliament has been granted the right to have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal but that does not mean that the British Parliament is the only institution that can veto the Brexit deal. Not only can the EU27 veto the deal, they each have specific red lines which cannot be crossed. Essentially, most Eastern European states demand the rights for Europeans in the UK to be guaranteed and that workers can still move on some scale, which is quite reasonable if you think about it. However, difficulty arise in two situations, one is with a split federal political system such as Belgium. The Belgium Government requires both federal governments, Wallonia and Flanders to approve bills and when CETA was presented to the Walloons, they rejected the deal initially and so caused the whole deal to come to a standstill, Whilst the Walloons did eventually agree to CETA, one slight disagreement to the Brexit deal could leave Britain wandering with regards to a deal. Furthermore, the issue of the Irish Border has threatened to collapse Mrs May’s government on numerous occasions. Mrs May has had to bargain with the Irish, the DUP and the EU to find a preferable agreement; one where there is as frictionless trade as possible without abiding by EU regulation and it’s created a situation in which the event of a desirable outcome has become negligible. Yet if there isn’t frictionless trade on the Irish Border the outcome is clear, no deal on Brexit.

So Mrs May is in a distinctly unique position in negotiating a deal for Britain due to restraints held by her majority, her party, the EU, the EU27 and the electorate; her lack of backing and support never fails to surprise anyone in the UK.

If you have got this far and enjoyed what you have read, please let me know and I can make more of these posts :)

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