What on EARTH is happening to Brexit?

I apologise in advance for this post, it is a lot more reactionary to current affairs than most of my blog posts and whilst my blog posts are kind of dependent on current affairs, this is based upon the events of the past few days.


For too long now, I have almost expected the UK Government and EU to reach a deal. Jean-Claude Juncker's mandate has been to reach a deal and it appeared almost inconceivable that Juncker could unsuccessfully achieve his mandate and still hold his position within the negotiating team. Similarly, a world in which the UK crashes out the EU seemed beyond belief; our financial sector, aviation, and food market would collapse almost instantaneously and leave Britain at a standstill, a first for such a developed nation - and one I didn't want to imagine.

Furthermore, the positive language, until now, used by Tusk and May acted as encouragement that a deal could be done by November. The undertone set by May was that she expected, come November, the EU to back down over a number of key and decisive issues - based upon the idea that the EU was desperate to achieve a deal. I am no doubt sure that the EU expected something similar from May. However, unsurprisingly, the hardcore ideologists both at the EU and in the UK remain as determined as ever to stick to their beliefs and red lines and neither side appears to be flinching as of yet. 


For numerous months, I believe nearing a year now, the Irish Border has been an issue of mass complexity. How does the Republic of Ireland maintain frictionless trade with Northern Ireland without creating a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK? Does Northern Ireland remain in the Customs Union and therefore so does the UK, well no, Theresa May has ruled that out from the get-go. Could Northern Ireland and the UK be regulatorily aligned with the EU? Well, Ireland has been explicitly clear stating it will not accept any deal for the island that is any worse than the current backstop. The current backstop currently states that Northern Ireland and Northern Ireland only can remain in the customs union and EU single market should a deal be not be reached. Therefore, in my mind at least, a no deal would be unacceptable to the DUP, who currently prop up May's government, as that would leave a clear border along the Irish Sea. Not only would this deal be downvoted in Parliament, but May's government would also collapse. That's why I thought it would be so improbable that a no deal Brexit would take place - it's way too much risk for Mrs May and this collapse in government could have significant negative repercussions for the British economy. 

So, when I read today that the EU was in disbelief that Mrs May had turned up to the summit on Wednesday with no new proposals for either the UK position in regards to the single market and customs union or for the Irish Border problem, I had a brief chuckle to myself. I know, I should not be finding these events humorous but my disbelief at the childishness on show was too much for me to handle. Mrs May, from what I have heard, has produced numerous proposals for the UK's position in the future post-Brexit and each time, each plan has been strongly refuted by the EU, maximum facilitation, regulatory alignment, the list goes on. Mrs May tried to throw the ball into the EU's court, suggesting that the EU should produce new ideas acceptable to them to try and resolve the current impasse. However, as the backstop agreement, made in December, is so vague about time limits but so clear about the relationship on the island of Ireland, this agreement is almost perfect for them; frictionless trade remains across the Irish Border, something highly desirable to the EU. Therefore it would take something almost magical for the EU to agree to anything but the backstop for Ireland. It's just unbelievable in my eyes that the EU is so resistant to compromise. I get that they want to get the best deal possible but they have to show some leeway in order to achieve a deal in the first place. 

So, in answer to my question, what on EARTH is happening to Brexit?, an impasse has been reached, neither side feel comfortable crossing their red lines but each side expected their counterpart to do just that, it feels as if neither side really knows what the next step is. The Irish Border issue is the fundamental sticking point, how can May propose a relationship on the island of Ireland that is better or as acceptable as the current backstop agreement without creating a border down the Irish sea. It seems as though the EU has increased the number of red lines they have for the Brexit Deal which is causing an immense amount of discomfort for Mrs May. Unfortunately, with the EU being described as an immovable force that will not compromise on many fundamental aspects, No Deal, initially an empty threat to the EU, seems as though it could come to fruition.

As the number of red lines for the EU continues to grow, the difference in visions for the two institutions also grows. Polls across the nation show that whilst 60% thought a deal could be reached at the beginning of September, only 40% of the same people think a deal can be reached now. I don't mean to be a downer but stock up your medicines and foodstuffs because these industries will almost certainly suffer major disruption from a no deal Brexit that seems more and more likely by the day. Fear and tension are building, 670,000 marchers in London for the People's Vote demonstrate how tangible the fear of no deal Brexit is...

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