The EU's position on Commons turmoil

(Written on Saturday 17th November 2018)

When sitting at my desk earlier today, examining my blog, I remembered it was named the EU/Brexit Blog and rather ironically, the one thing I haven't referred to as much as I should have has been the EU. Our constitutional crisis no doubt usurps the qualms of the EU but it is important to consider the likelihood that the Draft Agreement may not pass through the Commons. As much as we want to promote national sovereignty and inflate our global position, the EU has just as much interest in this topic as the nation. What does happen if Parliament votes down the deal?

Well, as I am sure my trusty readers know, I addressed these points fairly comprehensively in my previous post, but, could we see the EU supporting other options that may not be on the table today.

I read this brilliant piece from the BBC's Katya Adler who addressed this precise issue. Clearly, no deal is completely out of the EU's best interests, hell, Michel Barnier's mandate was to secure a deal and as such, would be highly unlikely that the EU would encourage a no deal scenario.

First of all, despite this being the Draft Agreement, we cannot simply allow amendments to be as we do in Parliament, especially as this is an agreement. I am sure no one, including May, will want to return to the negotiating table, something she has been erroneously dreadful at. However, and this is key, if the deal is voted down in the Commons, then the EU will be open to some governmental amendments to the deal. It is important to make clear how these will be minor tweaks rather than wholesale changes to the deal.

Now, Michael Gove reportedly refused the position as DExEU minister due to the inability to make amendments to the Draft Withdrawal Agreement. With Stephen Barclay now being assigned such a role, could he be the one to propose amendments to the deal? That is quite unlikely, this formerly junior minister is unlikely to take a prominent role with any negotiations and his mandate from the PM is to secure support for the Withdrawal Agreement in the Commons. Mrs May has quietly reassigned various roles from DExEU to herself. Notably, Mrs May proceeded to lead negotiations instead of Mr Raab when he was appointed the Minister and this follows the trend.

But what about a Second Referendum or a General Election, what happens then? The EU has reportedly made further contingency plans for such an event, especially since Vince Cable MP made the trip to Brussels to convince the EU leaders that these events were a genuine possibility. In these scenarios, the EU is prepared to pause Article 50 in order to either avoid a no deal scenario or preferably, see the UK 'rescind' Article 50. As contentious as these ideas are, they are all options laid out as possible by the EU and we must consider them.

Amendments to the Withdrawal Agreement will take place, some member-state leaders have expressed such a desire and while nothing fundamental will change, it is important that if specific language such as 'goods moving from Northern Ireland to Great Britain may be subject to checks' can be altered, then more Brexiteers should support the deal. Undoubtedly, they will claim the fact that the UK will become a rule taker makes the deal unacceptable but since May has already signalled that the UK Government can make unilateral commitments to not have checks across the Irish Sea, it clearly has upset a lot of Unionists throughout the United Kingdom.

Will we ever see a day where the EU pauses/rescinds Article 50? The former is more likely but again, we must consider all options on the table. The EU would suffer if we left the EU without a deal, it is in their interests to show they can be constructive but the extent to which they will do that remains to be seen. What we do know is that no large changes to the deal will take place but, if we can reassure the 51-60 Brexiteers or even just some of them to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement, well the deal will have a much greater chance of passing through the Commons.