UPDATED: Does Commons Arithmetic Guarantee the Brexit Deal Struck?

Okay so this was poorly planned on my behalf, or rather, posting my initial Commons Arithmetic on Friday did not account for events that would take place on Saturday. So when I read Jeremy Corbyn's quote in Der Spiegel stating that he believed 'There's no stopping Brexit', I could only throw my hands into the air in despair because this quote has huge implications for Brexit.

The Commons requires 322 votes as a general rule of thumb for a bill to pass and although all MPs might not be present in the Brexit vote which will most likely be in September, the required vote count will likely be somewhere near that total.

To start off with, we have the 60 Tory MPs rebelling that are led by Rees-Mogg and we also have the People's Vote so called 'rebels' made up of Anna Soubry, Phillip Lee, Guto Bebb and a few more who also strongly refute the government's Brexit proposals. However, and more crucially, we see government support inside government diminishing, demonstrated by Jo Johnson's resignation just a few days ago. What this means is that no longer can the government rely on those within government to support the Brexit Bill and we will likely see further resignations showing rejection of the government's plans.

The plans that many are rejecting today is May's backstop arrangement with the EU, it will see near total regulatory alignment to the EU with no voting capabilities - meaning the UK has no influence to change these rules. Many see this as an inferior relationship with the EU that we already have now and a betrayal of the referendum of 2016 as the UK will be unable to strike FTAs.

When Corbyn announced he and his party would support a deal struck by May at the Labour Conference if it included membership of the Customs Union, I mistakenly believed that if a backstop arrangement included membership of the Customs Union, Corbyn would support such a deal and we would see a smooth transition out of the EU whilst remaining a part of the EU. It appears however, that Corbyn also has red lines and sees this inferior position as being unacceptable and so could not vote for any deal struck by May. It is an overwhelming change in position but considering he is the Leader of the Opposition, it does not surprise me that that is the position he holds.

Now, for sake of simplicity, we have 262 Labour MPs and 60 Tory MPs at least who have stated they will vote down any deal in Parliament and if my maths is correct, 262 + 60 = 322 and therefore voting down the deal. And don't forget, the number of Tory MPs ready to vote down the government's plan is increasing by the day and this number does not account for the DUP, SNP, Lib Dems and we know the DUP has some strong opinions with regards to the Irish Borders and are supposedly likely to also vote down this deal.

So what does this mean for May and her government? Well, no matter what happens, it appears to many red lines have been breached for MPs and so no matter what the deal presented to Parliament is, it will be voted down. We are facing an existential constitutional crisis whereby the legislative body is clashing with the administrative and the Commons will no doubt win, but that has serious consequences for our nation. Will we have a new Tory leader or will we hold a GE and what does that mean for the Brexit negotiations? Can we restart the negotiations? Can we rescind Article 50? Will we have a second referendum? What would a hypothetical referendum say? So many questions arise from this but one thing for certain is Mrs May and her government will not be better off once these events unfold. This is an unruly mess that we've got ourselves here and how we proceed from this I have no clue, but it won't be nice and easy.