What are the current backstop arrangements?
(note this was written on Thursday 8th November 2018)
For so long have the British people heard the term 'Backstop Arrangement' and not quite known what they mean, it is the elusive term that proves so difficult in British politics. But what are the arrangements and why are they important to the Brexit process?
The UK Government have been stating that 'No Deal is better than a Bad Deal' since January 2017 and whilst many have practically disposed of the idea due to the practical and real issues that arise from a no deal, logically, it is a good negotiating tactic showing ones preparedness to walk away from negotiations. The EU has returned, taking this statement for face value, and started to make contingency plans should the UK and EU fail to reach a deal stating the future relationship with regards to movement of people and goods, there needs to be a backup arrangement protecting the fragile balance of Irish politics across the North South divide. Furthermore, it views this backup arrangement as paramount to the negotiations pre March 2019 as Mrs May's supposed red lines of leaving the single market, customs union and ECJ jurisdiction made a deal highly improbable and so the likelihood of this backstop arrangement being implemented was great enough that this backstop arrangement would become as important as the deal struck.
So, by March 2019, the EU and UK would need to agree the skeleton (essentially) of the Brexit Bill and during the transition period, negotiate the future relationship. Now, if the UK leaves the Customs Union and Single Market, a trade deal about how the two economies would link together would need to be negotiated in the 19 months till the transition period lapses. Considering the Canada deal took seven years to negotiate, you can see why the EU is concerned that a future relationship including all trade arrangements will be agreed upon in a mere 19 months - and this is where the backstop arrangements come in.
The backstop is an agreement struck by the PM back in December 2017 which states that if by December 2020 a deal explicitly stating the future trading relationship of the EU and UK has not been reached, that a backstop arrangement will be implemented. This backstop ensures that Northern Ireland would have complete regulatory alignment with the EU, meaning frictionless trade can continue across the Irish Border, as well remaining part of the EU's VAT scheme. The PM also agreed that there would be no customs border down the Irish Sea, meaning trade between Northern Ireland and the UK can continue to move freely without checks, as it is now. However, that leaves the PM in a tricky spot because if Northern Ireland remains a member of the Customs Union but the mainland United Kingdom cannot deviate even marginally from the trade arrangement in Northern Ireland, then the entire UK will be consumed as a member of the Customs Union - or any form of Customs Union that goes by a different name.
Today, one of the main sticking points of the apparent 5% remaining of the Brexit deal is the practicality of the backstop arrangement. The PM argues you cannot have only Northern Ireland remaining part of the Customs Union as part of the backstop and that the backstop must apply to the entire United Kingdom. Furthermore, the PM is adamant that there must be an expiry date on this backstop deal as the UK cannot permanently remain a member of the Customs Union - something she has repeatedly rejected publicly. However, the prospect of having an expiry date on the backstop leaves questions as to what the future trading relationship of the EU and UK would be and frankly, I think even the EU bureaucrats are tired of all this negotiating and bureaucracy. Neither side could choose to end the backstop as that would raise questions over the validity/legitimacy of the deal as either side could just agree to whatever in the backstop arrangement and then end it at the most suitable time for that party.
However, this leaves two key questions remaining, will the UK have to pay for membership of a re branded Customs Union (I note France and the Netherlands in particular have shown strong dislike of the idea) and whether Mrs May's party will accept this deal and allow the PM herself to carry out and implement this historic deal into UK legislation. The answers to these questions remain unknown however, in all likelihood, a deal will be reached as once this Backstop arrangement is complete, the only barrier to a Brexit Bill is the future trading relationship, which can be negotiated during the Transition Period.
So, the Backstop Arrangement agreed in December is flawed. Period. Both parties accept this. Once both parties negotiate a deal of a Backstop 2.0, the Brexit Withdrawal Bill will be reached awaiting approval by Parliament and the House of Commons and, dare I say it, it should be smooth sailing from that point onwards!
For so long have the British people heard the term 'Backstop Arrangement' and not quite known what they mean, it is the elusive term that proves so difficult in British politics. But what are the arrangements and why are they important to the Brexit process?
The UK Government have been stating that 'No Deal is better than a Bad Deal' since January 2017 and whilst many have practically disposed of the idea due to the practical and real issues that arise from a no deal, logically, it is a good negotiating tactic showing ones preparedness to walk away from negotiations. The EU has returned, taking this statement for face value, and started to make contingency plans should the UK and EU fail to reach a deal stating the future relationship with regards to movement of people and goods, there needs to be a backup arrangement protecting the fragile balance of Irish politics across the North South divide. Furthermore, it views this backup arrangement as paramount to the negotiations pre March 2019 as Mrs May's supposed red lines of leaving the single market, customs union and ECJ jurisdiction made a deal highly improbable and so the likelihood of this backstop arrangement being implemented was great enough that this backstop arrangement would become as important as the deal struck.
So, by March 2019, the EU and UK would need to agree the skeleton (essentially) of the Brexit Bill and during the transition period, negotiate the future relationship. Now, if the UK leaves the Customs Union and Single Market, a trade deal about how the two economies would link together would need to be negotiated in the 19 months till the transition period lapses. Considering the Canada deal took seven years to negotiate, you can see why the EU is concerned that a future relationship including all trade arrangements will be agreed upon in a mere 19 months - and this is where the backstop arrangements come in.
The backstop is an agreement struck by the PM back in December 2017 which states that if by December 2020 a deal explicitly stating the future trading relationship of the EU and UK has not been reached, that a backstop arrangement will be implemented. This backstop ensures that Northern Ireland would have complete regulatory alignment with the EU, meaning frictionless trade can continue across the Irish Border, as well remaining part of the EU's VAT scheme. The PM also agreed that there would be no customs border down the Irish Sea, meaning trade between Northern Ireland and the UK can continue to move freely without checks, as it is now. However, that leaves the PM in a tricky spot because if Northern Ireland remains a member of the Customs Union but the mainland United Kingdom cannot deviate even marginally from the trade arrangement in Northern Ireland, then the entire UK will be consumed as a member of the Customs Union - or any form of Customs Union that goes by a different name.
Today, one of the main sticking points of the apparent 5% remaining of the Brexit deal is the practicality of the backstop arrangement. The PM argues you cannot have only Northern Ireland remaining part of the Customs Union as part of the backstop and that the backstop must apply to the entire United Kingdom. Furthermore, the PM is adamant that there must be an expiry date on this backstop deal as the UK cannot permanently remain a member of the Customs Union - something she has repeatedly rejected publicly. However, the prospect of having an expiry date on the backstop leaves questions as to what the future trading relationship of the EU and UK would be and frankly, I think even the EU bureaucrats are tired of all this negotiating and bureaucracy. Neither side could choose to end the backstop as that would raise questions over the validity/legitimacy of the deal as either side could just agree to whatever in the backstop arrangement and then end it at the most suitable time for that party.
However, this leaves two key questions remaining, will the UK have to pay for membership of a re branded Customs Union (I note France and the Netherlands in particular have shown strong dislike of the idea) and whether Mrs May's party will accept this deal and allow the PM herself to carry out and implement this historic deal into UK legislation. The answers to these questions remain unknown however, in all likelihood, a deal will be reached as once this Backstop arrangement is complete, the only barrier to a Brexit Bill is the future trading relationship, which can be negotiated during the Transition Period.
So, the Backstop Arrangement agreed in December is flawed. Period. Both parties accept this. Once both parties negotiate a deal of a Backstop 2.0, the Brexit Withdrawal Bill will be reached awaiting approval by Parliament and the House of Commons and, dare I say it, it should be smooth sailing from that point onwards!
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