Could we actually exit from Brexit?

(Written on Sunday the 9th of December)

What a mysterious topic this is. Back in early 2017, the big news was whether the UK could unilaterally revoke Article 50. This was emphatically refuted by both the EU and UK parliament as being both unconstitutional as well as unfeasible. Low and behold, we find ourselves about to enter 2019 with this exact discussion arising yet again. However, one of those limiting factors is being questioned as to whether it is legitimate or not. This would be the feasibility.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, and as much as I dislike the cliche, the phrase 'democratic will of the people' pretty much makes the ability of government to revoke A50 despite having the referendum of 2016 infinitesimal. However, there is a real boredom arising from the general public who are fed up of talking about Brexit and just want to focus on judicial reform, housing reform and, of course, transport reform. These are the issues the public care about and I wouldn't be surprised if many wanted to just banish the idea of Brexit, so that no one would ever have to discuss it again, and move on to prioritising the issues within the Union.

Now, and this is highly significant, the Advocate General for the ECJ, essentially the minister in charge, declared that the UK should have unilateral permission to rescind/revoke Article 50. Whilst this is yet to become the formal opinion of the ECJ, as you can expect, the opinion of the Advocate General generally translates into policy.

Nevertheless, it is still not the ECJ's opinion that Article 50 can be revoked and so this is merely speculation. In some ways, the strengthens Mrs May's negotiating power as she can always just threaten that the UK stays in the EU, much as the EU has done with the backstop arrangement. If you don't agree to this then this shoddy backstop arrangement will implemented will now turn into, if you don't offer us a fair deal - one far less beneficial to the EU that's currently on the table - we will just say oh well we're coming back to the EU.

But revoking Article 50 would require support from MPs. They have been wrestling control away from the government lately and it wouldn't be unreasonable to think that MPs would have a vote on such issues when they government were forced to allow MPs to have a vote as to whether Article 50 should be triggered - brought about by none other than Gina Miller. A revokal of Article 50 doesn't seem so unreasonable when you think about it. Dominic Raab openly stated he would've voted Remain had he known these would be the circumstances we find ourselves in today. Many others reiterate that view where the notion of Brexit has become wearisome. MPs will most likely want to go back to their constituencies in such event and we could genuinely see a second referendum held. May's position in power is anything but strong and stable and has bowed to pressure almost daily - with potential arms sales amendments withdrawn and her government being found in contempt of Parliament. Whilst May's rhetoric may be there will be no second referendum, she also stated we would leave the Customs Union - something not guaranteed in her Withdrawal Agreement. But I deviate, I can always find time to criticise May for her handling of situations but nonetheless, whether the PM wants a second referendum or even to revoke Article 50 has become fairly irrelevant. Power now lies within Parliament and the future will be decided by the will of the MPs.

We can speculate as to whether we can rescind Article 50 and whilst it may be feasible, it would, today, be regarded as unconstitutional in my opinion as the democratic view of the nation was shared back in 2016 and we would have to go back to the people if we were to even discuss rescinding Article 50. It may be a dream for those remainers and really anyone tired of Brexit but there are numerous steps that must take place the United Kingdom to actually be able to exit from Brexit.

(Update: The ECJ announced today that the UK could unilaterally revoke Article 50 to remain in the EU)

The feasibility issue of remaining in the EU has now been concluded. The General Public could wake up one morning and say, this has been a time-consuming divisive issue and I just want it to be over. Let's stay in the EU. This is merely hypothetical but the desire for a second referendum has been intensified through the ability to offer remaining in the EU as an option for the people.