What next for Mrs May?
Well hasn't this been a turbulent week in the UK. First, we had the vote on Mrs May's deal called off on Monday and then, on Tuesday evening, Sir Graham Brady announced the 48 letters of no confidence had been sent in by Tory MPs. The subsequent vote was then won by Mrs May although not emphatically. Mrs May then announced she would seek further clarification of the deal as a result of her calling of the meaningful vote.
Now that is a brief summary of this week in politics and I could've easily surmised these events but I thought it was important to take a minute to let the dust settle and then comment on everything - which is what I intend to do now.
First of all, when Mrs May called off the vote, I personally considered that the most politically insensitive move the PM could've executed. Despite there being three full days of debate in the Commons for the deal, the PM, at the last minute, pulled the vote due to the knowledge that she would lose. Quelle suprise.
But I think that was always obvious, no matter what Commons Arithmetic used, the PM would virtually never have been able to secure parliamentary approval for her deal and as such, it seems ridiculous that the PM only realised such 36 hours prior to the vote. Regardless, a defeat in the Commons would have only enhanced the PM's negotiating position if she could return to the EU and say, if you want a deal, prove it, offer us a reasonable deal that will be accepted by Parliament and that would force the EU's hand to some extent - at least to make some concessions. But no, Mrs May refused to do so, annoying both her own Parliamentary colleagues as well as not taking advantage of a potential negotiating tactic.
I, personally, believe that the reason the 48 letters of no confidence was achieved on Tuesday was because many Tory MPs felt the insensitivity of the PM to call off the vote which was scheduled to be just the next day. But hey ho, the vote was won by Mrs May and we can now put that horrible moment of uncertainty behind us, can't we? Well, not quite, the mere fact Mrs May won a majority may be enough to settle the qualms of many but the idea that 35% of her own party's MPs voted no confidence in her leadership strikes me as daunting. This lack of confidence is sure to surface numerous times over the rest of Mrs May's tenure, for instance, where her government had to back down on an amendment to arms sales as so many of her own MPs refused to back the amendment. I wouldn't be surprised if MPs - particularly the Tories - used this newfound power again in Parliament as it is an unusual position to be in.
Anyways, Mrs May felt that if she went back to the EU now, she could win some concessions from the EU with regards to the Withdrawal Agreement. I find this comical, why on earth would the EU concede on major and significant parts of the withdrawal when it has already been agreed by both executives. I mean, you just cannot do this in the world we live in. Stubborn to this position however, Mrs May made it her objective to gain greater certainty in the Political Declaration and for the EU to provide a stronger assertion/ or language that the backstop would not be implemented. I understand why Mrs May feels as though this could be the clincher for her but for there to be greater certainty, the entire feel for the Withdrawal Agreement would need to be amended. If you think about it, if you were to replace the word 'endeavour' with 'commit' repeatedly within a 500+ page document, the narrative of the document changes entirely. Now, I am of course not saying this would be the case but considering the Northern Ireland backstop takes around 30 pages of the entire document, this change in language is going to make a significant difference to the document overall. That combined with the EU refusing to return to the negotiating table makes Mrs May's job of changing the Agreement much more difficult.
I think that Mrs May has, however, appreciated the extent of the challenge ahead, she has majorly ramped up no deal Brexit efforts that were essentially halted around 6 weeks prior after the Chancellor announced the Budget 2018 and with only 14 weeks remaining, panic has set in with business across the UK with fears that an actual no deal scenario may take place. Furthermore, even if a no deal scenario falls into place, by now, most businesses have reached the point of no return where they have permanently moved their business across to mainland Europe in order to protect the business interests. Whilst no deal Brexit preparations have been reinvigorated in the past couple days, the NAO has published harrowing claims that the medical sector and NHS and largely understocked in the event of a no deal scenario and the Secretary of State for Defense announced that 3,500 troops are ready to support the government to enact an orderly Brexit. Still not exactly inspiring confidence and certainty in the proceeding events.
And to put the icing on the cake, Jeremy Corbyn, in a rather unusual move announced a motion of no confidence in Mrs May and not her government. Over the past week, the Labour Party have given off mixed impressions of the state of the vote of no confidence. I mean, let's be clear, the one true aim of the Labour Party currently is to hold a General Election. Since the DUP and frankly the Tories also do not want a General Election, that vote is unlikely to pass. In that case, Jeremy Corbyn would be forced, due to the rhetoric from Sir Keir Starmer and John McDonnell, to publicly endorse a second referendum - something Corbyn is highly resistant to. Now, Corbyn announced a vote of no confidence in Mrs May specifically, this means that Parliament does not have to have an immediate vote of no confidence and that the Leader of the Commons can allocate time specifically for this motion to be debated, which of course is likely to be after the Brexit vote in January. So, does this vote achieve anything or is it just some public hanky panky from Corbyn, I would suggest the latter.
So, as we head into the Christmas period where, thankfully, Parliament is in recess, we all get some time to digest everything that has happened in recent week; I know I need to take a minute to process everything and pause. Hopefully, when we return, specific concessions on the backstop arrangements will have been made ensuring that there are contingencies - dare I say backstop arrangements - to avoid the current backstop being implemented. Who knows... I'll be honest, I have never seen a more hopeless leader of the opposition in my entire life, his feebleness and indecision is helping no one and Corbyn's pursuit of his agenda, to hold a General Election, is costing the country with the Brexit date looming dangerously close.
Merry Christmas to all of you that read this blog and hopefully you can take your eyes off of what has been the most chaotic political period of the past decade.
Now that is a brief summary of this week in politics and I could've easily surmised these events but I thought it was important to take a minute to let the dust settle and then comment on everything - which is what I intend to do now.
First of all, when Mrs May called off the vote, I personally considered that the most politically insensitive move the PM could've executed. Despite there being three full days of debate in the Commons for the deal, the PM, at the last minute, pulled the vote due to the knowledge that she would lose. Quelle suprise.
But I think that was always obvious, no matter what Commons Arithmetic used, the PM would virtually never have been able to secure parliamentary approval for her deal and as such, it seems ridiculous that the PM only realised such 36 hours prior to the vote. Regardless, a defeat in the Commons would have only enhanced the PM's negotiating position if she could return to the EU and say, if you want a deal, prove it, offer us a reasonable deal that will be accepted by Parliament and that would force the EU's hand to some extent - at least to make some concessions. But no, Mrs May refused to do so, annoying both her own Parliamentary colleagues as well as not taking advantage of a potential negotiating tactic.
I, personally, believe that the reason the 48 letters of no confidence was achieved on Tuesday was because many Tory MPs felt the insensitivity of the PM to call off the vote which was scheduled to be just the next day. But hey ho, the vote was won by Mrs May and we can now put that horrible moment of uncertainty behind us, can't we? Well, not quite, the mere fact Mrs May won a majority may be enough to settle the qualms of many but the idea that 35% of her own party's MPs voted no confidence in her leadership strikes me as daunting. This lack of confidence is sure to surface numerous times over the rest of Mrs May's tenure, for instance, where her government had to back down on an amendment to arms sales as so many of her own MPs refused to back the amendment. I wouldn't be surprised if MPs - particularly the Tories - used this newfound power again in Parliament as it is an unusual position to be in.
Anyways, Mrs May felt that if she went back to the EU now, she could win some concessions from the EU with regards to the Withdrawal Agreement. I find this comical, why on earth would the EU concede on major and significant parts of the withdrawal when it has already been agreed by both executives. I mean, you just cannot do this in the world we live in. Stubborn to this position however, Mrs May made it her objective to gain greater certainty in the Political Declaration and for the EU to provide a stronger assertion/ or language that the backstop would not be implemented. I understand why Mrs May feels as though this could be the clincher for her but for there to be greater certainty, the entire feel for the Withdrawal Agreement would need to be amended. If you think about it, if you were to replace the word 'endeavour' with 'commit' repeatedly within a 500+ page document, the narrative of the document changes entirely. Now, I am of course not saying this would be the case but considering the Northern Ireland backstop takes around 30 pages of the entire document, this change in language is going to make a significant difference to the document overall. That combined with the EU refusing to return to the negotiating table makes Mrs May's job of changing the Agreement much more difficult.
I think that Mrs May has, however, appreciated the extent of the challenge ahead, she has majorly ramped up no deal Brexit efforts that were essentially halted around 6 weeks prior after the Chancellor announced the Budget 2018 and with only 14 weeks remaining, panic has set in with business across the UK with fears that an actual no deal scenario may take place. Furthermore, even if a no deal scenario falls into place, by now, most businesses have reached the point of no return where they have permanently moved their business across to mainland Europe in order to protect the business interests. Whilst no deal Brexit preparations have been reinvigorated in the past couple days, the NAO has published harrowing claims that the medical sector and NHS and largely understocked in the event of a no deal scenario and the Secretary of State for Defense announced that 3,500 troops are ready to support the government to enact an orderly Brexit. Still not exactly inspiring confidence and certainty in the proceeding events.
And to put the icing on the cake, Jeremy Corbyn, in a rather unusual move announced a motion of no confidence in Mrs May and not her government. Over the past week, the Labour Party have given off mixed impressions of the state of the vote of no confidence. I mean, let's be clear, the one true aim of the Labour Party currently is to hold a General Election. Since the DUP and frankly the Tories also do not want a General Election, that vote is unlikely to pass. In that case, Jeremy Corbyn would be forced, due to the rhetoric from Sir Keir Starmer and John McDonnell, to publicly endorse a second referendum - something Corbyn is highly resistant to. Now, Corbyn announced a vote of no confidence in Mrs May specifically, this means that Parliament does not have to have an immediate vote of no confidence and that the Leader of the Commons can allocate time specifically for this motion to be debated, which of course is likely to be after the Brexit vote in January. So, does this vote achieve anything or is it just some public hanky panky from Corbyn, I would suggest the latter.
So, as we head into the Christmas period where, thankfully, Parliament is in recess, we all get some time to digest everything that has happened in recent week; I know I need to take a minute to process everything and pause. Hopefully, when we return, specific concessions on the backstop arrangements will have been made ensuring that there are contingencies - dare I say backstop arrangements - to avoid the current backstop being implemented. Who knows... I'll be honest, I have never seen a more hopeless leader of the opposition in my entire life, his feebleness and indecision is helping no one and Corbyn's pursuit of his agenda, to hold a General Election, is costing the country with the Brexit date looming dangerously close.
Merry Christmas to all of you that read this blog and hopefully you can take your eyes off of what has been the most chaotic political period of the past decade.
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