Where does the UK go now in terms of Brexit?
Well this week has already been an eventful week. Theresa May has announced that MPs will not only be able to have a final vote on her Brexit deal on the 12th of March, but if her deal is rejected by MPs, MPs will then proceed to vote on how to proceed - with a no deal or extending Article 50.
The vote again on Mrs May's deal is slightly irrelevant. It is a vote that we already know the answer to, it will suffer another landslide defeat. However, the vote is a placeholder so that MPs can proceed to vote on the next path that the UK follows, a no deal or extending the process of Article 50.
We can hypothesise till the cows come home how these votes will end but what we can do is examine what will happen if either motion is approved by the Commons.
Parliament approves the UK leaving the EU without a deal:
The vast majority of small businesses do not have the cash available to prepare for the various outcomes of Brexit. This means there are series of outcomes still possible today that businesses just aren't prepared for. With the potential for a no deal, with the 240,000 small business in the UK that only trade within the EU, they would need to complete a form in order for goods to travel between the two blocs, but only 40,000 small businesses have prepared for this outcome and set up a system for the form to be produced and distributed to the various trade bodies. Mark Carney himself stated that if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, the GDP forecast for the nation would be materially lower - demonstrating a weaker economy. With foodstuffs that are transported fresh to the UK that have a short period in which they remain fresh, with the potential for delays at the border, more pieces of fresh food will go off, leading to estimates from experts who believe that fresh food prices would increase by around 30% and leaving the potential for food shortages as individuals are bulk purchasing food in preparation for Brexit. I want to state that I am not participating in Project Fear, I am simply reiterating the notion that a withdrawal from the EU without a deal will leave us poorer and less prosperous. Furthermore, in order to successfully withdraw without a deal from the EU, specific regulation that would be of value to UK businesses that the EU currently legislates for has not been achieved and passed through Parliament. The industries that are regulated by the EU will now have to be regulated by bodies from within the UK however, there has been no talk of any such bodies as the ambiguity around what kind of exit from the EU the UK will partake in remains.
Parliament approves the UK delaying the Article 50 process:
I'm not going to go too far into depth with regards to this as there are so many variables surrounding this event. Well, first of all, it's all well and good that the UK wants to delay the Article 50 process but the EU27 has to agree to this as well - and, as much as they want to avoid a no deal scenario, there will be conditions. These conditions would no doubt be unpopular as an extension of Article 50 would see the UK be part of EU Parliamentary elections - something the EU is keen to avoid. Then there is the question over what will an extension of the Article 50 process achieve. Will it just provide further time for the government to decide we will leave without a deal? Will we see another referendum, which Jeremy Corbyn has declared support for now? Or will it just be another bureaucratic waste of time, prolonging the pain and humiliation for this country that is Brexit?
Whatever the scenario, Mrs May will be keen to avoid supporting any form of Brexit other than her deal; with ardent Remainers and Brexiteers threatening to quit over either of these potentials, Mrs May will rather a subset of her party will leave based on the will of the rest of the party rather than anything Mrs May has done in particular - other than horribly mess up this process. It is a sham basically - no hiding from that - and the markets have declared that delaying Article 50 will be of most benefit to the economy by simply providing extra time for the UK to trade with the EU. Crazy times.
The vote again on Mrs May's deal is slightly irrelevant. It is a vote that we already know the answer to, it will suffer another landslide defeat. However, the vote is a placeholder so that MPs can proceed to vote on the next path that the UK follows, a no deal or extending the process of Article 50.
We can hypothesise till the cows come home how these votes will end but what we can do is examine what will happen if either motion is approved by the Commons.
Parliament approves the UK leaving the EU without a deal:
The vast majority of small businesses do not have the cash available to prepare for the various outcomes of Brexit. This means there are series of outcomes still possible today that businesses just aren't prepared for. With the potential for a no deal, with the 240,000 small business in the UK that only trade within the EU, they would need to complete a form in order for goods to travel between the two blocs, but only 40,000 small businesses have prepared for this outcome and set up a system for the form to be produced and distributed to the various trade bodies. Mark Carney himself stated that if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, the GDP forecast for the nation would be materially lower - demonstrating a weaker economy. With foodstuffs that are transported fresh to the UK that have a short period in which they remain fresh, with the potential for delays at the border, more pieces of fresh food will go off, leading to estimates from experts who believe that fresh food prices would increase by around 30% and leaving the potential for food shortages as individuals are bulk purchasing food in preparation for Brexit. I want to state that I am not participating in Project Fear, I am simply reiterating the notion that a withdrawal from the EU without a deal will leave us poorer and less prosperous. Furthermore, in order to successfully withdraw without a deal from the EU, specific regulation that would be of value to UK businesses that the EU currently legislates for has not been achieved and passed through Parliament. The industries that are regulated by the EU will now have to be regulated by bodies from within the UK however, there has been no talk of any such bodies as the ambiguity around what kind of exit from the EU the UK will partake in remains.
Parliament approves the UK delaying the Article 50 process:
I'm not going to go too far into depth with regards to this as there are so many variables surrounding this event. Well, first of all, it's all well and good that the UK wants to delay the Article 50 process but the EU27 has to agree to this as well - and, as much as they want to avoid a no deal scenario, there will be conditions. These conditions would no doubt be unpopular as an extension of Article 50 would see the UK be part of EU Parliamentary elections - something the EU is keen to avoid. Then there is the question over what will an extension of the Article 50 process achieve. Will it just provide further time for the government to decide we will leave without a deal? Will we see another referendum, which Jeremy Corbyn has declared support for now? Or will it just be another bureaucratic waste of time, prolonging the pain and humiliation for this country that is Brexit?
Whatever the scenario, Mrs May will be keen to avoid supporting any form of Brexit other than her deal; with ardent Remainers and Brexiteers threatening to quit over either of these potentials, Mrs May will rather a subset of her party will leave based on the will of the rest of the party rather than anything Mrs May has done in particular - other than horribly mess up this process. It is a sham basically - no hiding from that - and the markets have declared that delaying Article 50 will be of most benefit to the economy by simply providing extra time for the UK to trade with the EU. Crazy times.
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