Can the Prime Minister withstand the barrage of complaints against her Chequers Plan?

First of all, I want to make clear that these points that I make below are not criticisms of the PM but rather me stating the facts and whether her Chequers Plan will survive as a result.

In the first instance, the famous Chequers Plan sets out a common rulebook for some goods and services subject to agreement with the EU, a joint jurisdiction area whereby UK courts could uphold EU/UK regulations whilst still being aware of precedent and expectations of the EU - i.e removing ECJ jurisdiction and bring back 'control' back onto the mainland. Finally, the Chequers Plan sets out a maximum facilitation agreement whereby the UK would collect tariffs on products headed to the EU and pay those tariffs directly to the EU whilst still applying its own tariffs post-Brexit.

As of the 21st of September 2018, the Prime Minister has come under immense scrutiny from members of her own cabinet and party, First Ministers across the UK and in particular, the EU - Juncker, Barnier and Tusk in particular. Initially, both the Brexiteers and EU rejected the Chequers Plan stating that the UK was cherry-picking the desired benefits of EU membership and disbanding all other features whilst not performing a clean break from the EU. More recently though, there has been somewhat of a positive undertone from the European Commission showing a more flexible attitude towards the Brexit negotiations and with 80% of a deal having been agreed upon, it feels probable that a deal will be made by November. However, that is not the question at hand, we have to look at whether the Chequers Plan will prevail and if May will be there to see it come to fruition.

Naming the critiques of the Chequers Plan seems pointless as pretty much the entire nation has had its say on the plan - for better or for worse - and despite this, Mrs May is defiant that it's her deal or no deal. Boris Johnson has used colourful language to describe the issues with a maximum facilitation deal with the EU and the EU would never agree to a plan such as that due to the level of trust between the two institutions required that money would be handled diligently and responsibly, there also becomes the increased level of bureaucracy that stems as eastern European states need to instigate processes for what would be a small level of trade directly between the two nations. As logical as this plan may sound, pragmatically, it defies the purpose of the EU that a non-member state can trade directly with the bloc and so the frequent criticism of this plan is unexpected. Adjustments must be made by both sides to be able to trade effectively in order to support the economies of all nations involved.

Fundamentally, however, the Chequers Plan still leaves a lot of interaction between the EU and UK and Brexiteers ideologically disapprove of this entire notion - it's the whole premise of Brexit. So for the ECJ to be able to set a precedent for which the UK has to follow is frankly appalling in their eyes and so it immediately crosses a red line for these Brexiteers. I get that there are a huge number and variety of red lines for individuals and institutions however with a meaningful vote upcoming on any Brexit deal, it remains to be seen whether these Brexiteers stick to their ideals and ideologies or they vote for this deal rather than see Britain head into a no deal Brexit world.

More importantly though, the EU has come out with a barrage of concerns and disagreements and frankly, the EU is in the greatest negotiating position in this moment - particularly because Theresa May gave up her only negotiating power around 18 months ago, comment more if you want to hear more about this by the way. The EU has used strong language stating that Chequers will not be acceptable to the EU and personally, I don't believe it was ever meant to be entirely acceptable to the EU but for compromises to be made on certain issues, such as trade. Clearly, the government would not appreciate having to identify products designated for the EU to enter the UK under EU tariffs and have to pay a sum over the EU as that creates large amounts of administration and achieves very little as the flow of goods has to be clear for each and every item. Whilst the EU has become more sympathetic towards finding a resolution with the Irish Border and softening its stance, the problem remains.

How anyone expects the government to produce an agreement that whets the appetite of the Brexiteers and EU is delusional - pardon my strong words - but the Chequers Plan is a plan that picks certain ideals from each ideological background so is it really inconceivable that both sides will compromise on an idea that loosely adapts what is the Chequers Plan. If the loosely based Chequers Plan does form what is to be the Brexit deal then the huge question is whether the Commons will ratify that and that's a game that I think no one wants to play right now with the pace at which our newsfeeds are running at.

So if I was to answer the question 'Can the Prime Minister withstand the barrage of complaints against her Chequers Plan?' I would essentially say the Prime Minister embodies what is her Chequers Plan just as David Cameron embodied the Remain Campaign is some form or another and so if the Chequers Plan fails so does the Prime Minister. Yet would it really be that surprising if the final deal included components of the Chequers Plan and could that save Mrs May long term?

I'll leave you with that question on this cold and windy Saturday morning and if you liked this blog post please leave a comment and let me know :)