What is the state of May's Brexit deal?

(Written on Friday the 23rd November 2018)

I sit here today and I have been listening to all kinds of qualms and complaints from across the political spectrum directed at Mrs May's Withdrawal Agreement. This has left the state of the Brexit deal in tatters but what does this mean for Mrs May, the Government and Brexit overall?

Mrs May:

It's no secret that Mrs May isn't well supported by many fellow Tories but nonetheless, the BBC finds only 26 Tory MPs have sent letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady. I want to state my belief that despite the catastrophic negotiating tactics of the May and her administration, only 26 letters of no confidence have been sent in and I highly doubt that within the next five months, a further 22 letters will be sent in. So, first of all, I am highly sceptical that the required 48 letters of no confidence in the PM will be sent in. Furthermore, a majority of Tory MPs would need to vote that they have no confidence in the PM and with the current state of the Conservative Parliamentarians, that seems unlikely - numerous Tories have stated explicitly they wouldn't vote against May. So, for the time being, Mrs May's position as PM is safe; however, the threat of a no confidence motion from the opposition is a very real possibility with many Labour MPs calling for such recently. Yet, with the Labour Cabinet almost working in tandem with the government, any such motion seems rather unlikely to myself.

Brexit:

The Brexit Withdrawal Agreement has been subject to a public smear campaign. Not only does it place the UK in an inferior position compared to today. Many describe the UK as being a rule taker in such a deal rather than a rule maker and as such, with the UK being a weaker position than today, cannot accept the deal put to Parliament. Others reject the backstop arrangement, the continuation of the UK being in ECJ jurisdiction and a non time-limited tie to the customs union. So, with a bit of what I call Commons Arithmetic, it becomes unlikely that the Withdrawal Agreement passes through Parliament but nonetheless, a possibility. If the Brexit Bill passes, Mrs May and her government will negotiate the trade agreement and future relations between the EU and UK from 30th March 2019 onwards and this negotiating position (was) outlined in the Political Declaration yesterday. However, this has attracted further criticisms across the Commons due the ambiguity and vagueness of the Political Declaration. Whilst it is a non-binding agreement, it should outline the framework of the future relations and a sign of what is to come. But, since the deal is so unbelievably vague, there is no framework for the deal and so Parliamentarians see this as giving Mrs May a free mandate to negotiate the future relations. They dub this a 'Blind Brexit'. As the political declaration is included within the Withdrawal Agreement, May will have already received support from Parliament, should the Withdrawal Agreement pass, to negotiate the future relations and have no accountability to Parliament during the negotiations - unless decided otherwise in Parliament (such as the meaningful vote agreed in Parliament earlier this year)

So where does Brexit stand today, well I have already addressed this exact issue in a previous post but in essence, we cannot negotiate a better deal, there is room for a few potential amendments but nothing drastic away from the original agreement. If Brexit has any chance of passing in the form it is in currently, Mrs May will need to secure support from the DUP who believe this free mandate provided to May will see customs checks down the Irish Sea, partially breaking up the Union. Mrs May has been on a PR campaign securing support from various NI businesses but she needs to whip up these votes or herself and her government will be left in tatters. She has to continue on her PR campaign in order to have any chance of securing the votes for her Brexit deal. Finally, I think May needs to be less confrontational with her MPs and the Commons and ensure a fair vote on the deal, much like Edward Heath did back in the 70s in order to secure the deal.

The Government:

The Government's standing is largely linked to the position of Mrs May however, something rather new out of Parliament, is the proposition that Mrs May would face a humiliating defeat in the first passing of the Withdrawal Agreement in the Commons but still be approved in the second reading. This would lead to the Withdrawal Agreement being integrated into UK legislation but sets up the foundations for a leadership vote as the first reading would no doubt be a signal of no confidence in Mrs May's premiership.