What are the implications of the Brexit negotiations on the EU?

Last night, I was lying in bed thinking about Brexit, as you do, and I was thinking about the what the current EU leaders and all the parliamentarian leaders across the EU would be thinking about right now - particularly about Brexit. Now I am sure we've all heard the classic 'no one in the EU really cares as much about Brexit as us British do' but it seems to be becoming a more prominent issue across the EU. So I thought I would structure this blog post based on what do the other leaders of across the EU think about the Brexit negotiations and then the future for the EU as a result of these negotiations.

Firstly, I thought it'd be important to say that I don't think anyone anticipated what a huge deal Brexit was until the negotiations started - now I know I'm stating the bleeding obvious but it's a key principal to note. Through the period up to summer 2017, I would regularly hear on the radio that EU leaders were unconcerned by Brexit and that it just wasn't a big deal that didn't warrant all the attention that it received. I must admit that is quite naïve but it is an opinion held by many across the world so I guess I could forgive the leaders for this misconception. Then all of a sudden, the reality of the situation finally sunk in and this was the point where the EU leaders recognised the institutional changes that were going to take place. We saw Leo Varadkar call for reassurances about the Irish Border, eastern European states asking for citizen's rights to be guaranteed and it really sunk in that Brexit would happen. It became apparent to each state that they needed to guarantee certain aspects in this Brexit deal to protect the nation and their citizen's interests. Then, around March 2018, Theresa May became increasingly frustrated with the EU's noticeable inflexibility in regards to the negotiations and so ramped up No Deal Brexit talks. Whilst I prefer to see this as part of a negotiating tactic rather than an actual possibility, I believe this was done to enhance the UK's negotiating position and help get a better deal. Furthermore, when Theresa May announced that the negotiations were at an impasse and that the EU were not proposing any alternatives to her plans, shockwaves were sent across the EU. If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, it means that the citizen's are technically not guaranteed their rights in the UK and there would be a hard border across the Irish Border. It is literally the worst case scenario for the member states. Crucially, it has meant that these member states have ramped up pressure on the European Commission, Juncker and Tusk to be flexible when negotiating. I believe there are genuine concerns amongst these parliamentarians that No Deal Brexit is a possibility and I read somewhere that one EU leader stated 'Juncker's mandate was to negotiate a deal, not avoid one completely'. Whilst it remains to be seen if the negotiations from this point forward will be more productive, no doubt the antics of the last fortnight have led to a significant rethink for the negotiating team in the EU.

Furthermore, with the rise of Euroscepticism across Europe as a whole, and the impromptu change in negotiating tactics in the EU, Britain is set to get a good deal in my opinion - I say that without any facts, just based on my opinion of the negotiations so far and how I believe they will progress in the future. Could we see more nations leave the EU, Hungary are moving further to the right and Viktor Orban is unsurprisingly unhappy at the EU's attempt to suppress his policies and Italy becoming increasingly frustrated with EU restrictions on their budget. All institutions are ideologically clashing at the moment and with Article 50 as potential weapon, could these member states be ready to wield their weapons as a result of Britain getting a good deal? One thing we know, this is the end of the EU as we know it but the most significant question is whether it will suffer a fall from grace not too dissimilar to the USSR?

If you enjoyed this post, please let me know and I can make more :) - also, I apologise for my rather erratic posting schedule at the moment, school has got me unbelievably busy but that would never dispel my love/hate of Brexit!