Does Commons Arithmetic guarantee the Brexit deal struck?
We hear relentlessly the pressures on all sides on May's Brexit deal for it to be able to pass into legislation. It has to not cross the EU, DUP, Commons and, for that matter, Ireland's red lines - in this context I refer red lines to being the points of a deal that make a deal inconceivable.
The EU and Ireland are closely intertwined in their desires, Ireland desires to have no border across the North and South divide which requires frictionless trade for Northern Ireland - a customs union membership which we can now refer to as the backstop arrangement. In order to prevent this red line being breached, it remains impossible for a deal to be struck that doesn't ensure frictionless trade across the Irish border - i.e Customs Union membership.
Then we proceed onto the DUP, they threaten to topple the government and provide concern for the future union of the United Kingdom if a border develops down the Irish Sea. This, in all fairness, is a largely expected and natural claim for the party to make but it means there is no other viable option for the Government to entertain a deal where the conditions of the backstop arrangement is not fundamentally similar to the future relationship of the EU and UK.
That is where the Chequers Plan stems from, a certainty that those two issues are fundamental to the Brexit process and they must be addressed in order to successfully withdraw the UK from the EU with the UK remaining whole and economically stable. However, May has come under pressure from around 60 Tory MPs (part of the ERG) that ideologically disagree with Chequers, seeing the UK as remaining as part of a rebranded Customs Union and sharing a common rulebook as misrepresenting the Brexit process. The issue is not that a deal cannot be reached due to these desires but rather that it won't cross the red line in the Commons. These 60 MPs mean that Mrs May has a far reduced command of the Commons and will have to whip up an extra 60-70 votes in order for the Brexit deal to pass. I personally call this Commons Arithmetic and it forms one of Mrs May's greatest problems to solve.
So, Mrs May knows the red lines of the EU, DUP and Ireland and can facilitate a deal favourable to all three groups and of course the United Kingdom. Unfortunately, this deal would place May as being ideologically opposed to many party members and it has been seen that the PM has been struggling to find a balance between retaining the support of her party whilst still negotiating a reasonable deal for the UK. So when I read online that Mrs May had hatched a supposed 'Secret Deal' with the EU in which the UK joins almost a permanent 'Customs Union' with the EU and so there would be frictionless trade across the Irish Border and no hard border down the Irish Sea - vital first steps in a deal. Furthermore, it is of the Labour Party's opinion that if the PM presents a deal that meets no less than seven tests, the Labour Party will whip its members to vote for this deal in the Commons. Therefore, allowing for the many rebels on either side, the PM will no doubt secure enough votes for her Brexit Bill.
I watched Peston on ITV last week and the Commons Arithmetic used there showed this version of Brexit being the most likely to succeed in the Commons however, there remains one core issue with this deal, it disillusions all the Brexiteers within the Conservative Party with regards to Mrs May leading the party. Such rebellion could see a new PM installed, just as Mrs May herself was back in 2016 or, in my opinion, worse, see a General Election called. This could throw the Withdrawal and future relationship of the UK and EU into huge uncertainty and would certainly do no good to stabilising the nation as a whole.
Overall, it's just becoming unbelievably chaotic in Parliament at the moment and depending on which way Mrs May goes with her Brexit deal, the future of the nation remains as uncertain as ever and Mrs May hangs on by her dear threads every day - both positions are as volatile as each other. Raab has apparently threatened to resign over this 'Secret Brexit' Deal which is endorsed by the new Remainers gang of Hammond, Liddington and Clark. With another DExEU Secretary of State threatening to resign it is simply up to fate what is in store for us as a nation. What I can state for a fact is that this Customs Union membership that isn't called a Customs Union Membership is the most likely deal to pass all the tests and red lines. As illustrated by my Rational Acting Model, there is very likely only one scenario that is favourable to both parties and this deal falls into that category - meaning, in my opinion as a rational thinker, that only a deal of this form can be presented to the Commons with any chance of being successful.
The EU and Ireland are closely intertwined in their desires, Ireland desires to have no border across the North and South divide which requires frictionless trade for Northern Ireland - a customs union membership which we can now refer to as the backstop arrangement. In order to prevent this red line being breached, it remains impossible for a deal to be struck that doesn't ensure frictionless trade across the Irish border - i.e Customs Union membership.
Then we proceed onto the DUP, they threaten to topple the government and provide concern for the future union of the United Kingdom if a border develops down the Irish Sea. This, in all fairness, is a largely expected and natural claim for the party to make but it means there is no other viable option for the Government to entertain a deal where the conditions of the backstop arrangement is not fundamentally similar to the future relationship of the EU and UK.
That is where the Chequers Plan stems from, a certainty that those two issues are fundamental to the Brexit process and they must be addressed in order to successfully withdraw the UK from the EU with the UK remaining whole and economically stable. However, May has come under pressure from around 60 Tory MPs (part of the ERG) that ideologically disagree with Chequers, seeing the UK as remaining as part of a rebranded Customs Union and sharing a common rulebook as misrepresenting the Brexit process. The issue is not that a deal cannot be reached due to these desires but rather that it won't cross the red line in the Commons. These 60 MPs mean that Mrs May has a far reduced command of the Commons and will have to whip up an extra 60-70 votes in order for the Brexit deal to pass. I personally call this Commons Arithmetic and it forms one of Mrs May's greatest problems to solve.
So, Mrs May knows the red lines of the EU, DUP and Ireland and can facilitate a deal favourable to all three groups and of course the United Kingdom. Unfortunately, this deal would place May as being ideologically opposed to many party members and it has been seen that the PM has been struggling to find a balance between retaining the support of her party whilst still negotiating a reasonable deal for the UK. So when I read online that Mrs May had hatched a supposed 'Secret Deal' with the EU in which the UK joins almost a permanent 'Customs Union' with the EU and so there would be frictionless trade across the Irish Border and no hard border down the Irish Sea - vital first steps in a deal. Furthermore, it is of the Labour Party's opinion that if the PM presents a deal that meets no less than seven tests, the Labour Party will whip its members to vote for this deal in the Commons. Therefore, allowing for the many rebels on either side, the PM will no doubt secure enough votes for her Brexit Bill.
I watched Peston on ITV last week and the Commons Arithmetic used there showed this version of Brexit being the most likely to succeed in the Commons however, there remains one core issue with this deal, it disillusions all the Brexiteers within the Conservative Party with regards to Mrs May leading the party. Such rebellion could see a new PM installed, just as Mrs May herself was back in 2016 or, in my opinion, worse, see a General Election called. This could throw the Withdrawal and future relationship of the UK and EU into huge uncertainty and would certainly do no good to stabilising the nation as a whole.
Overall, it's just becoming unbelievably chaotic in Parliament at the moment and depending on which way Mrs May goes with her Brexit deal, the future of the nation remains as uncertain as ever and Mrs May hangs on by her dear threads every day - both positions are as volatile as each other. Raab has apparently threatened to resign over this 'Secret Brexit' Deal which is endorsed by the new Remainers gang of Hammond, Liddington and Clark. With another DExEU Secretary of State threatening to resign it is simply up to fate what is in store for us as a nation. What I can state for a fact is that this Customs Union membership that isn't called a Customs Union Membership is the most likely deal to pass all the tests and red lines. As illustrated by my Rational Acting Model, there is very likely only one scenario that is favourable to both parties and this deal falls into that category - meaning, in my opinion as a rational thinker, that only a deal of this form can be presented to the Commons with any chance of being successful.
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