What Could Happen in Parliament?

(Written on Monday the 3rd of December 2018)

This week, May continued her media campaign trying to sell her deal to the public. A strange decision considering that MPs will seal her fate. We have also seen Parliament try to take control of the executive over the last week. With specific amendments being put to the Withdrawal Agreement, what do they all mean and what are the consequences of such amendments being passed in Parliament.

This week has seen another up and coming minister, Sam Gyimah, resign from Government citing the Withdrawal Agreement as being unacceptable. With demand growing in Parliament for a so-called 'People's Vote', the pressure is most certainly on the PM to give the MPs what they want - but Government policy says otherwise and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. In my eyes, there are only two ways we have a second referendum, first, is if we have a different Prime Minister because of Mrs May's strong opinions against it.  So, unless we see endorsal for a People's Vote from the opposition, I don't see that happening.

But could the opposition actually call a second referendum? Well, let's first state that Labour's number one preference would be for a General Election - despite them polling behind the Conservatives. Whilst the Labour Party has refused to rule out any options on the table, John McDonnell has said that in the event a GE cannot be held, a second referendum is 'inevitable'. I must say though that it does worry me that the Leader of the Opposition is unsure which way he would vote in such circumstances as he is by nature a leader and his position as leader should attract voters who relate to his opinions. His sheer lack of opinions on the entire matter leaves me greatly concerned that he could be presented with a blank canvas, the one MPs are saying May is trying to grab with regards to the Brexit negotiations.

Parliament is already divided, party affiliation is no longer the paramount concern with regards to Brexit. Every MP is voting with their constituency in mind and their conscience and a GE will no only highlight that fact but further divide the opinions both in Parliament and amongst the electorate.

We have also seen talk of the Government being prepared to lose the vote in the first reading in the Commons - resulting in an economic downturn due to the choice of the PMs deal or no deal - MPs then begin to panic and vote to support May's deal in the second reading.

This is a very risky move as it is calling the Commons' bluff. Many MPs call this a false choice. The notion that the only two options on the table being May's deal or no deal has infuriated many who believe that amendments to the Agreement could be made or it could be renegotiated or even, and a lot more radical, that Article 50 could be withdrawn and that Brexit could be stopped.

But, it is important that the vote gets passed, at least for May, so it surprises me that despite May finding herself in a situation fighting for her political career and legacy, she is going to the electorate trying to sell the deal - despite her vociferous claims that there will be no second referendum, it seems largely pointless trying to persuade the electorate her deal is good when MPs have slagged of virtually every part of the Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration.

This is largely all speculation, there is a more linear path that I think these events will follow. Firstly, Labour's Hilary Benn has put forward an amendment to the Withdrawal Agreement which has attracted a large amount of cross party support. The amendment rejects the choice that May has consistently argued is the case, her deal or no deal, and that Parliament would in effect take control of the negotiations to avoid fundamentally a no deal exit from the EU. This has huge implications for the Government as it is effectively taking power away from the executive and into the hands of Parliament. On first reading at least, the Withdrawal Agreement is unlikely, hell near never, going to pass through Parliament and lead to a vote of no confidence called by the opposition. Whilst this is unlikely to be successful, in that event, Labour would support a so called People's Vote and with the cross party support that already exists, a vote of some sort would occur - again as Parliament takes control and power away from the executive. The SNP have said that they are calling for Brexit to be put on hold as Parliament discusses everything but that is unlikely to get enough cross party support.

Now this is important. At the time of writing, I have just had my phone ping with a statement from Labour Party stating that the PM must release the entire legal advice on the deal rather than just a reduced version of the legal text. The legal text will state whether the UK could be permanently tied to the Customs Union as part of the withdrawal Agreement. Now, whilst legal text is rarely published in full, this is of course a huge point for many Brexiteers and the Government promised to publish any legal advice in full. This is causing further clashes between the executive and Parliament and is forming another part of a seemingly endless constitutional crisis this nation is facing. Whilst no one can be entirely sure of what will happen after the first reading on the 11th of December, it becomes blindingly obvious that Parliament and the Government are on a collision course - of which the magnitude of the accident is a blind man's guess.

Sorry for the large delay since my last post - I have been surprisingly busy but don't fear, despite the barrage of news about Brexit, I will always be here commenting on things.