The EU/Brexit Blog

Well hasn't this been a turbulent week in the UK. First, we had the vote on Mrs May's deal called off on Monday and then, on Tuesday evening, Sir Graham Brady announced the 48 letters of no confidence had been sent in by Tory MPs. The subsequent vote was then won by Mrs May although not emphatically. Mrs May then announced she would seek further clarification of the deal as a result of her calling of the meaningful vote. Now that is a brief summary of this week in politics and I could've easily surmised these events but I thought it was important to take a minute to let the dust settle and then comment on everything - which is what I intend to do now. First of all, when Mrs May called off the vote, I personally considered that the most politically insensitive move the PM could've executed. Despite there being three full days of debate in the Commons for the deal, the PM, at the last minute, pulled the vote due to the knowledge that she would lose. Quelle suprise. ...

(Written on Sunday the 9th of December) What a mysterious topic this is. Back in early 2017, the big news was whether the UK could unilaterally revoke Article 50. This was emphatically refuted by both the EU and UK parliament as being both unconstitutional as well as unfeasible. Low and behold, we find ourselves about to enter 2019 with this exact discussion arising yet again. However, one of those limiting factors is being questioned as to whether it is legitimate or not. This would be the feasibility. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, and as much as I dislike the cliche, the phrase 'democratic will of the people' pretty much makes the ability of government to revoke A50 despite having the referendum of 2016 infinitesimal. However, there is a real boredom arising from the general public who are fed up of talking about Brexit and just want to focus on judicial reform, housing reform and, of course, transport reform. These are the issues the public care about and I woul...

(Written on Tuesday the 4th of December 2018) As I sit here on a cold Tuesday evening, I remember thinking at 4pm that today had been relatively quiet so far in terms of news - with the headline being the BBC pulling out of a Brexit debate designed to be ahead of the Brexit vote in just one weeks time. Then I chuckled to myself as I remembered that the government would face two further votes in the Commons that would have immense implications for the nation and Brexit. So, whilst the Government had earlier lost a vote asking that the issue of contempt be referred to the Commons Privilege Committee but that had been defeated by MPs earlier today. The issue of contempt is substantial. A vote in the Commons passed on the 13th of November requiring the government to publish the entire legal text regarding Brexit. The way I like to think about this is the Attorney General is the government's lawyer. They have to determine whether legislation is legal and compatible in the UK and ...

(Written on Monday the 3rd of December 2018) This week, May continued her media campaign trying to sell her deal to the public. A strange decision considering that MPs will seal her fate. We have also seen Parliament try to take control of the executive over the last week. With specific amendments being put to the Withdrawal Agreement, what do they all mean and what are the consequences of such amendments being passed in Parliament. This week has seen another up and coming minister, Sam Gyimah, resign from Government citing the Withdrawal Agreement as being unacceptable. With demand growing in Parliament for a so-called 'People's Vote', the pressure is most certainly on the PM to give the MPs what they want - but Government policy says otherwise and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. In my eyes, there are only two ways we have a second referendum, first, is if we have a different Prime Minister because of Mrs May's strong opinions against it.  So, unle...

(Written on Friday the 23rd November 2018) I sit here today and I have been listening to all kinds of qualms and complaints from across the political spectrum directed at Mrs May's Withdrawal Agreement. This has left the state of the Brexit deal in tatters but what does this mean for Mrs May, the Government and Brexit overall? Mrs May: It's no secret that Mrs May isn't well supported by many fellow Tories but nonetheless, the BBC finds only 26 Tory MPs have sent letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady. I want to state my belief that despite the catastrophic negotiating tactics of the May and her administration, only 26 letters of no confidence have been sent in and I highly doubt that within the next five months, a further 22 letters will be sent in. So, first of all, I am highly sceptical that the required 48 letters of no confidence in the PM will be sent in. Furthermore, a majority of Tory MPs would need to vote that they have no confidence in the PM and wit...

(Written on Saturday 17th November 2018) When sitting at my desk earlier today, examining my blog, I remembered it was named the EU/Brexit Blog and rather ironically, the one thing I haven't referred to as much as I should have has been the EU. Our constitutional crisis no doubt usurps the qualms of the EU but it is important to consider the likelihood that the Draft Agreement may not pass through the Commons. As much as we want to promote national sovereignty and inflate our global position, the EU has just as much interest in this topic as the nation. What does happen if Parliament votes down the deal? Well, as I am sure my trusty readers know, I addressed these points fairly comprehensively in my previous post, but, could we see the EU supporting other options that may not be on the table today. I read this brilliant piece from the BBC's Katya Adler who addressed this precise issue. Clearly, no deal is completely out of the EU's best interests, hell, Michel Barnie...

(Written on Friday 16th November 2018) No doubt anyone has escaped the frenzy that is Brexit over the past few days. Theresa May has made the significant breakthrough of securing a deal with the EU and securing cabinet approval for the deal. In this post, I will address the Withdrawal Agreement and explore the various articles and clauses contained within the deal. I will then discuss the forward path from now onwards. The Withdrawal Agreement is a 585 page document that outlines outcomes from security co-operation to the contentious backstop agreement. Everyone will have their own opinions regarding each clause so I will endeavour to address each clause from an economic and practical standpoint. It astounds me that the document is so large but be so vague in language. We know the impact of uncertainty. The Pound is at its most volatile since June 2016 and this further uncertainty is further going to affect the UK economy as well as investment into the nation. The Backstop Arran...