The EU/Brexit Blog

(Written on Friday the 23rd November 2018) I sit here today and I have been listening to all kinds of qualms and complaints from across the political spectrum directed at Mrs May's Withdrawal Agreement. This has left the state of the Brexit deal in tatters but what does this mean for Mrs May, the Government and Brexit overall? Mrs May: It's no secret that Mrs May isn't well supported by many fellow Tories but nonetheless, the BBC finds only 26 Tory MPs have sent letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady. I want to state my belief that despite the catastrophic negotiating tactics of the May and her administration, only 26 letters of no confidence have been sent in and I highly doubt that within the next five months, a further 22 letters will be sent in. So, first of all, I am highly sceptical that the required 48 letters of no confidence in the PM will be sent in. Furthermore, a majority of Tory MPs would need to vote that they have no confidence in the PM and wit...

(Written on Saturday 17th November 2018) When sitting at my desk earlier today, examining my blog, I remembered it was named the EU/Brexit Blog and rather ironically, the one thing I haven't referred to as much as I should have has been the EU. Our constitutional crisis no doubt usurps the qualms of the EU but it is important to consider the likelihood that the Draft Agreement may not pass through the Commons. As much as we want to promote national sovereignty and inflate our global position, the EU has just as much interest in this topic as the nation. What does happen if Parliament votes down the deal? Well, as I am sure my trusty readers know, I addressed these points fairly comprehensively in my previous post, but, could we see the EU supporting other options that may not be on the table today. I read this brilliant piece from the BBC's Katya Adler who addressed this precise issue. Clearly, no deal is completely out of the EU's best interests, hell, Michel Barnie...

(Written on Friday 16th November 2018) No doubt anyone has escaped the frenzy that is Brexit over the past few days. Theresa May has made the significant breakthrough of securing a deal with the EU and securing cabinet approval for the deal. In this post, I will address the Withdrawal Agreement and explore the various articles and clauses contained within the deal. I will then discuss the forward path from now onwards. The Withdrawal Agreement is a 585 page document that outlines outcomes from security co-operation to the contentious backstop agreement. Everyone will have their own opinions regarding each clause so I will endeavour to address each clause from an economic and practical standpoint. It astounds me that the document is so large but be so vague in language. We know the impact of uncertainty. The Pound is at its most volatile since June 2016 and this further uncertainty is further going to affect the UK economy as well as investment into the nation. The Backstop Arran...

(note this was written on Thursday 8th November 2018) For so long have the British people heard the term 'Backstop Arrangement' and not quite known what they mean, it is the elusive term that proves so difficult in British politics. But what are the arrangements and why are they important to the Brexit process? The UK Government have been stating that 'No Deal is better than a Bad Deal' since January 2017 and whilst many have practically disposed of the idea due to the practical and real issues that arise from a no deal, logically, it is a good negotiating tactic showing ones preparedness to walk away from negotiations. The EU has returned, taking this statement for face value, and started to make contingency plans should the UK and EU fail to reach a deal stating the future relationship with regards to movement of people and goods, there needs to be a backup arrangement protecting the fragile balance of Irish politics across the North South divide. Furthermore, it ...

Okay so this was poorly planned on my behalf, or rather, posting my initial Commons Arithmetic on Friday did not account for events that would take place on Saturday. So when I read Jeremy Corbyn's quote in Der Spiegel stating that he believed 'There's no stopping Brexit', I could only throw my hands into the air in despair because this quote has huge implications for Brexit. The Commons requires 322 votes as a general rule of thumb for a bill to pass and although all MPs might not be present in the Brexit vote which will most likely be in September, the required vote count will likely be somewhere near that total. To start off with, we have the 60 Tory MPs rebelling that are led by Rees-Mogg and we also have the People's Vote so called 'rebels' made up of Anna Soubry, Phillip Lee, Guto Bebb and a few more who also strongly refute the government's Brexit proposals. However, and more crucially, we see government support inside government diminishing,...

We hear relentlessly the pressures on all sides on May's Brexit deal for it to be able to pass into legislation. It has to not cross the EU, DUP, Commons and, for that matter, Ireland's red lines - in this context I refer red lines to being the points of a deal that make a deal inconceivable. The EU and Ireland are closely intertwined in their desires, Ireland desires to have no border across the North and South divide which requires frictionless trade for Northern Ireland - a customs union membership which we can now refer to as the backstop arrangement. In order to prevent this red line being breached, it remains impossible for a deal to be struck that doesn't ensure frictionless trade across the Irish border - i.e Customs Union membership. Then we proceed onto the DUP, they threaten to topple the government and provide concern for the future union of the United Kingdom if a border develops down the Irish Sea. This, in all fairness, is a largely expected and natural ...

BREAKING NEWS - Arron Banks, a prominent Leave.EU campaigner has been referred to the National Crime Agency for breaking electoral law. This is not the first time that the pro-Brexit campaign has come into question over the last year and it's causing just as much outrage as the first instance but let's be clear, the Electoral Commission referring Banks to the NCA is not as significant as it may seem. When the Electoral Commission first referred the Vote Leave campaign to police for breaking electoral spending laws back in July, there was the general expectation that Vote Leave would be criminally charged and that would be that - however, nearly four months on from that point, there has yet to be any formal charges against the group. We, as the public, cannot expect Vote Leave to be found guilty if the facts take this long to certify that Vote Leave are guilty of breaking electoral law. Now the point of that story is so that we don't get ahead of ourselves and...

In a surprising turn of events, the Chancellor's Autumn Budget 2018 was fairly light in terms of mentioning Brexit. When the Chancellor mentioned Brexit, it was either to refer to a Brexit dividend, a sum of £4.4bn or an increase in spending on Brexit preparations. I think it's fair to say there was a lack of long term funding commitments to the public services, bar the increase in NHS spending, however, that was indeed due to Brexit. With a certain lack of awareness regarding the future relationship between the EU and UK and the effect that that would have on trade and economy, it is typical of Spreadsheet Phil to be pragmatic about saving up money in the event of a no deal. There were lots of small contributions to each public sector, a strong commitment to fixing potholes and privind money for the little extras for school was an attempt to sway funding concerns whilst also not committing to long term funding in the event that a no deal Brexit means that funding needs to...