The EU/Brexit Blog

Well this week has already been an eventful week. Theresa May has announced that MPs will not only be able to have a final vote on her Brexit deal on the 12th of March, but if her deal is rejected by MPs, MPs will then proceed to vote on how to proceed - with a no deal or extending Article 50. The vote again on Mrs May's deal is slightly irrelevant. It is a vote that we already know the answer to, it will suffer another landslide defeat. However, the vote is a placeholder so that MPs can proceed to vote on the next path that the UK follows, a no deal or extending the process of Article 50. We can hypothesise till the cows come home how these votes will end but what we can do is examine what will  happen if either motion is approved by the Commons. Parliament approves the UK leaving the EU without a deal: The vast majority of small businesses do not have the cash available to prepare for the various outcomes of Brexit. This means there are series of outcomes still possible t...

I apologise for my recent lack of posts but there have been many factors in my decision not to post anything on my blog over the last four weeks. Back when Theresa May's Brexit deal was rejected emphatically by Parliament back in mid January, I thought to myself, well at least Mrs May now has a mandate to either remove the backstop or end negotiations. In my mind it was clear, the backstop was an issue of ginormous magnitude for the Commons and one that EU leaders would fail to avoid. Unless the issue could be resolved, there would be no deal. So I waited. I waited for progress to be made to resolve the issue of the backstop. I waited for a compromise, a sensible and reasonable compromise which could see the issue become less volatile or even solved. However, as I waited, I fully noticed the incompetence of both Mrs May and Mr Corbyn who failed to even discuss or resolve the issue. In fact, both were more concerned about keeping their respective parties in tact - something the la...

First of all, I apologise for my brief sabbatical. There was a circle of repetitive Brexit-related news found across all mainstream mediums and having addressed them, I felt it unnecessary to further comment on issues and ideas. However, the elephant in the room is that Mrs May has lost her 'meaningful vote' by 230 votes, the largest government defeat in history and the message from the Commons to May could not be clearer. Parliament fundamentally rejects the deal presented and no matter the amendments proposed, the deal is flawed and will never be supported by the Commons. Now, this vote is not legally binding but it would be politically suicidal to pursue with such a deal as fellow parliamentarians would argue the executive is acting independent of Parliament and, no doubt, a successful vote of no confidence would follow. There was talk earlier on Tuesday that May would, if there was a minor loss of her deal, to allows the proposal of amendments and return to the EU and u...

Well hasn't this been a turbulent week in the UK. First, we had the vote on Mrs May's deal called off on Monday and then, on Tuesday evening, Sir Graham Brady announced the 48 letters of no confidence had been sent in by Tory MPs. The subsequent vote was then won by Mrs May although not emphatically. Mrs May then announced she would seek further clarification of the deal as a result of her calling of the meaningful vote. Now that is a brief summary of this week in politics and I could've easily surmised these events but I thought it was important to take a minute to let the dust settle and then comment on everything - which is what I intend to do now. First of all, when Mrs May called off the vote, I personally considered that the most politically insensitive move the PM could've executed. Despite there being three full days of debate in the Commons for the deal, the PM, at the last minute, pulled the vote due to the knowledge that she would lose. Quelle suprise. ...

(Written on Sunday the 9th of December) What a mysterious topic this is. Back in early 2017, the big news was whether the UK could unilaterally revoke Article 50. This was emphatically refuted by both the EU and UK parliament as being both unconstitutional as well as unfeasible. Low and behold, we find ourselves about to enter 2019 with this exact discussion arising yet again. However, one of those limiting factors is being questioned as to whether it is legitimate or not. This would be the feasibility. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, and as much as I dislike the cliche, the phrase 'democratic will of the people' pretty much makes the ability of government to revoke A50 despite having the referendum of 2016 infinitesimal. However, there is a real boredom arising from the general public who are fed up of talking about Brexit and just want to focus on judicial reform, housing reform and, of course, transport reform. These are the issues the public care about and I woul...

(Written on Tuesday the 4th of December 2018) As I sit here on a cold Tuesday evening, I remember thinking at 4pm that today had been relatively quiet so far in terms of news - with the headline being the BBC pulling out of a Brexit debate designed to be ahead of the Brexit vote in just one weeks time. Then I chuckled to myself as I remembered that the government would face two further votes in the Commons that would have immense implications for the nation and Brexit. So, whilst the Government had earlier lost a vote asking that the issue of contempt be referred to the Commons Privilege Committee but that had been defeated by MPs earlier today. The issue of contempt is substantial. A vote in the Commons passed on the 13th of November requiring the government to publish the entire legal text regarding Brexit. The way I like to think about this is the Attorney General is the government's lawyer. They have to determine whether legislation is legal and compatible in the UK and ...

(Written on Monday the 3rd of December 2018) This week, May continued her media campaign trying to sell her deal to the public. A strange decision considering that MPs will seal her fate. We have also seen Parliament try to take control of the executive over the last week. With specific amendments being put to the Withdrawal Agreement, what do they all mean and what are the consequences of such amendments being passed in Parliament. This week has seen another up and coming minister, Sam Gyimah, resign from Government citing the Withdrawal Agreement as being unacceptable. With demand growing in Parliament for a so-called 'People's Vote', the pressure is most certainly on the PM to give the MPs what they want - but Government policy says otherwise and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. In my eyes, there are only two ways we have a second referendum, first, is if we have a different Prime Minister because of Mrs May's strong opinions against it.  So, unle...

(Written on Friday the 23rd November 2018) I sit here today and I have been listening to all kinds of qualms and complaints from across the political spectrum directed at Mrs May's Withdrawal Agreement. This has left the state of the Brexit deal in tatters but what does this mean for Mrs May, the Government and Brexit overall? Mrs May: It's no secret that Mrs May isn't well supported by many fellow Tories but nonetheless, the BBC finds only 26 Tory MPs have sent letters of no confidence to Sir Graham Brady. I want to state my belief that despite the catastrophic negotiating tactics of the May and her administration, only 26 letters of no confidence have been sent in and I highly doubt that within the next five months, a further 22 letters will be sent in. So, first of all, I am highly sceptical that the required 48 letters of no confidence in the PM will be sent in. Furthermore, a majority of Tory MPs would need to vote that they have no confidence in the PM and wit...

(Written on Saturday 17th November 2018) When sitting at my desk earlier today, examining my blog, I remembered it was named the EU/Brexit Blog and rather ironically, the one thing I haven't referred to as much as I should have has been the EU. Our constitutional crisis no doubt usurps the qualms of the EU but it is important to consider the likelihood that the Draft Agreement may not pass through the Commons. As much as we want to promote national sovereignty and inflate our global position, the EU has just as much interest in this topic as the nation. What does happen if Parliament votes down the deal? Well, as I am sure my trusty readers know, I addressed these points fairly comprehensively in my previous post, but, could we see the EU supporting other options that may not be on the table today. I read this brilliant piece from the BBC's Katya Adler who addressed this precise issue. Clearly, no deal is completely out of the EU's best interests, hell, Michel Barnie...

(Written on Friday 16th November 2018) No doubt anyone has escaped the frenzy that is Brexit over the past few days. Theresa May has made the significant breakthrough of securing a deal with the EU and securing cabinet approval for the deal. In this post, I will address the Withdrawal Agreement and explore the various articles and clauses contained within the deal. I will then discuss the forward path from now onwards. The Withdrawal Agreement is a 585 page document that outlines outcomes from security co-operation to the contentious backstop agreement. Everyone will have their own opinions regarding each clause so I will endeavour to address each clause from an economic and practical standpoint. It astounds me that the document is so large but be so vague in language. We know the impact of uncertainty. The Pound is at its most volatile since June 2016 and this further uncertainty is further going to affect the UK economy as well as investment into the nation. The Backstop Arran...

(note this was written on Thursday 8th November 2018) For so long have the British people heard the term 'Backstop Arrangement' and not quite known what they mean, it is the elusive term that proves so difficult in British politics. But what are the arrangements and why are they important to the Brexit process? The UK Government have been stating that 'No Deal is better than a Bad Deal' since January 2017 and whilst many have practically disposed of the idea due to the practical and real issues that arise from a no deal, logically, it is a good negotiating tactic showing ones preparedness to walk away from negotiations. The EU has returned, taking this statement for face value, and started to make contingency plans should the UK and EU fail to reach a deal stating the future relationship with regards to movement of people and goods, there needs to be a backup arrangement protecting the fragile balance of Irish politics across the North South divide. Furthermore, it ...

Okay so this was poorly planned on my behalf, or rather, posting my initial Commons Arithmetic on Friday did not account for events that would take place on Saturday. So when I read Jeremy Corbyn's quote in Der Spiegel stating that he believed 'There's no stopping Brexit', I could only throw my hands into the air in despair because this quote has huge implications for Brexit. The Commons requires 322 votes as a general rule of thumb for a bill to pass and although all MPs might not be present in the Brexit vote which will most likely be in September, the required vote count will likely be somewhere near that total. To start off with, we have the 60 Tory MPs rebelling that are led by Rees-Mogg and we also have the People's Vote so called 'rebels' made up of Anna Soubry, Phillip Lee, Guto Bebb and a few more who also strongly refute the government's Brexit proposals. However, and more crucially, we see government support inside government diminishing,...

We hear relentlessly the pressures on all sides on May's Brexit deal for it to be able to pass into legislation. It has to not cross the EU, DUP, Commons and, for that matter, Ireland's red lines - in this context I refer red lines to being the points of a deal that make a deal inconceivable. The EU and Ireland are closely intertwined in their desires, Ireland desires to have no border across the North and South divide which requires frictionless trade for Northern Ireland - a customs union membership which we can now refer to as the backstop arrangement. In order to prevent this red line being breached, it remains impossible for a deal to be struck that doesn't ensure frictionless trade across the Irish border - i.e Customs Union membership. Then we proceed onto the DUP, they threaten to topple the government and provide concern for the future union of the United Kingdom if a border develops down the Irish Sea. This, in all fairness, is a largely expected and natural ...

BREAKING NEWS - Arron Banks, a prominent Leave.EU campaigner has been referred to the National Crime Agency for breaking electoral law. This is not the first time that the pro-Brexit campaign has come into question over the last year and it's causing just as much outrage as the first instance but let's be clear, the Electoral Commission referring Banks to the NCA is not as significant as it may seem. When the Electoral Commission first referred the Vote Leave campaign to police for breaking electoral spending laws back in July, there was the general expectation that Vote Leave would be criminally charged and that would be that - however, nearly four months on from that point, there has yet to be any formal charges against the group. We, as the public, cannot expect Vote Leave to be found guilty if the facts take this long to certify that Vote Leave are guilty of breaking electoral law. Now the point of that story is so that we don't get ahead of ourselves and...

In a surprising turn of events, the Chancellor's Autumn Budget 2018 was fairly light in terms of mentioning Brexit. When the Chancellor mentioned Brexit, it was either to refer to a Brexit dividend, a sum of £4.4bn or an increase in spending on Brexit preparations. I think it's fair to say there was a lack of long term funding commitments to the public services, bar the increase in NHS spending, however, that was indeed due to Brexit. With a certain lack of awareness regarding the future relationship between the EU and UK and the effect that that would have on trade and economy, it is typical of Spreadsheet Phil to be pragmatic about saving up money in the event of a no deal. There were lots of small contributions to each public sector, a strong commitment to fixing potholes and privind money for the little extras for school was an attempt to sway funding concerns whilst also not committing to long term funding in the event that a no deal Brexit means that funding needs to...

I apologise in advance for this post, it is a lot more reactionary to current affairs than most of my blog posts and whilst my blog posts are kind of dependent on current affairs, this is based upon the events of the past few days. For too long now, I have almost expected the UK Government and EU to reach a deal. Jean-Claude Juncker's mandate has been to reach a deal and it appeared almost inconceivable that Juncker could unsuccessfully achieve his mandate and still hold his position within the negotiating team. Similarly, a world in which the UK crashes out the EU seemed beyond belief; our financial sector, aviation, and food market would collapse almost instantaneously and leave Britain at a standstill, a first for such a developed nation - and one I didn't want to imagine. Furthermore, the positive language, until now, used by Tusk and May acted as encouragement that a deal could be done by November. The undertone set by May was that she expected, come November, the ...

Are the UK government finances as dire as many it perceive it to be? The Chancellor has been a fierce critic of Brexit since day one and his prominent position as a Remainer has brought much criticism from fellow party and cabinet members. The Chancellor has distributed statistics from the Treasury that frequently state the distinct negatives on the economy of any kind of so-called Hard Brexit. Unsurprisingly, as the economy has appeared fairly resilient to Brexit recently, and I recognise that the markets have been susceptible to statements about the Brexit negotiations, however, considering the mass uncertainty over the future relationship between the EU and Britain, the economy is performing well. Therefore, despite the dire concerns of the Treasury that Brexit would be a detriment to the economy, the Chancellor appears to be unable to eat his cake and have it at the same time. Yet on the brighter side, that means that the economy is in a stronger position than expected...